EMMY PREDICTIONS
The 61st annual Emmy Awards will be broadcast this Sunday on CBS and will be hosted by Neil Patrick Harris. Without further adieu, here are my predictions.
Outstanding Comedy Series
o 30 Rock – NBC
o Entourage – HBO
o Family Guy – FOX
o Flight of the Conchords - HBO
o How I Met Your Mother – CBS
o The Office – NBC
o Weeds – Showtime
Last year’s winner – 30 Rock
Even with an expanded field of 7 nominees, this comes down to a battle of 2 shows; 30 Rock vs. The Office. 30 Rock has the edge with its record 22 nominations this year, but The Office had its strongest year yet creatively. Nonetheless, riding a huge wave of support, 30 Rock will walk away with the top prize once again
Outstanding Drama Series
o Big Love – HBO
o Breaking Bad – AMC
o Damages – FX
o Dexter – Showtime
o House – FOX
o Lost – ABC
o Mad Men – AMC
Last Year’s Winner – Mad Men
Mad Men still has the quality and the buzz to walk away with the win but Lost had its best year yet. Lost won this category in 2005 and Men won last year. I think Men will bring it home once again and Lost may have to wait until next year when the final season airs.
Outstanding Reality-Competition Program
o American Idol – FOX
o Dancing With the Stars – ABC
o Project Runway – Bravo
o The Amazing Race – CBS
o Top Chef – Bravo
Last Year’s Winner – The Amazing Race
The Amazing Race wins every year and this time around will be no different. The real question for this category is where the hell is Survivor and how come it never gets nominated?
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
o Alec Baldwin – 30 Rock – NBC
o Jemaine Clement – Flight of the Conchords – HBO
o Tony Shalhoub – Monk – USA
o Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory – CBS
o Steve Carell – The Office – NBC
o Charlie Sheen – Two and a Half Men – CBS
Last Year’s Winner – Alec Baldwin
I think it’s safe to say that Clement, Shalhoub and Sheen have no chance. This is a 3 man race between Baldwin, Parsons and Carell. Baldwin has the edge with all the love for 30 Rock and winning last year. Parsons is an amazing comic actor who is playing one of the most original sitcom characters in years. Carell is brilliant in every episode of The Office and has yet to win after 3 prior nominations. Parsons has time on his side and will surely be nominated again. There is no reason Baldwin shouldn’t win. The Michael Scott Paper Company arc showcased Carell’s beautifully and even touched us a bit in the end. This is Steve’s year.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
o Tina Fey – 30 Rock – NBC
o Christina Applegate – Samantha Who? – ABC
o Julia Louis-Dreyfus – The New Adventures of Old Christine – CBS
o Sarah Silverman – The Sarah Silverman Program – Comedy Central
o Toni Collette – The United States of Tara – Showtime
o Mary-Louise Parker – Weeds – Showtime
Last Year’s Winner – Tina Fey
Christina Applegate and Sarah Silverman should just be happy for the nomination. Parker’s show is a bit too dark for her to win in this category and truly she hardly has any of the funny lines on the show. Toni Collette effectively plays 4 characters in every episode and it is hard not to be impressed. Julia Louise-Dreyfus is a supremely talented comedic actress; a modern day Lucille Ball and truly deserves an award, but Tina Fey is unstoppable here. She’s truly fantastic in every episode and as the creative mind behind her critically adored show, she a shoe-in here.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
o Bryan Cranston – Breaking Bad – AMC
o Michael C. Hall – Dexter – Showtime
o Hugh Laurie – House – FOX
o Gabriel Byrne – In Treatment – HBO
o Jon Hamm – Mad Men – AMC
o Simon Baker – The Mentalist – CBS
Last Year’s Winner – Bryan Cranston
This is a very tough category to predict. Jon Hamm could win simply because of the support surrounding Mad Men. Michael C. Hall manages to make us like and empathize with a serial killer; no easy feat. Gabriel Byrne is quite good, but I’m not sure the show has enough support. Simon Baker is quite charming but his show doesn’t showcase his range like the other nominees. Cranston won last year and gave an even stronger performance this season. This leaves Hugh Laurie. At this point, House is already an iconic character and after 3 losses in this category it’s time to give Laurie his due and give him the win.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
o Sally Field – Brothers & Sisters – ABC
o Glenn Close – Damages – FX
o Mariska Hargitay – Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
o Elisabeth Moss – Mad Men – AMC
o Holly Hunter – Saving Grace – TNT
o Kyra Sedgwick – The Closer – TNT
Last Year’s Winner –Glenn Close
This is another tough category with each of the nominees deserving of the win. Close could definitely have a repeat here, but I think that the show doesn’t have as much buzz this year. Sally Field won 2 years ago and I don’t expect another win. Hargitay has surprised us by winning this category before but that event seems unlikely this year. Hunter and Sedgwick are both strong in their respective shows, but I think Elisabeth Moss is going ride the wave of support for Mad Men and walk away the winner.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
o Tracy Morgan – 30 Rock – NBC
o Jack McBrayer – 30 Rock – NBC
o Kevin Dillon – Entourage – HBO
o Neil Patrick Harris – How I Met Your Mother – CBS
o Rainn Wilson – The Office – NBC
o Jon Cryer – Two and a Half Men – CBS
Last Year’s Winner – Jeremy Piven
Somehow Piven didn’t score a nomination after dominating this category for the past 3 years and the other nominees are relieved I’m sure. Dillon is hysterical but he never has any real story arc that the Emmy voters can really get behind. The same goes for McBrayer. Morgan deserves a win, but this isn’t his year. This is a three man race between Wilson, Cryer and Harris, each of whom have been lost in this category mostly due to Piven. Neil Patrick Harris hosts the Emmy’s this year and it seems like it will be one of those universe is lining up type of moments where the host wins an award.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
o Jane Krakowski – 30 Rock – NBC
o Kristin Chenowith – Pushing Daisies – ABC
o Amy Poehler – Saturday Night Live – NBC
o Kristen Wiig – Saturday Night Live – NBC
o Vanessa Williams – Ugly Betty – ABC
o Elizabeth Perkins – Weeds – Showtime
Last Year’s Winner – Jean Smart
Chenowith is nominated (rightfully) for a show that was prematurely cancelled and the nomination will serve as the award. Ugly Betty has dropped off in quality and in ratings, so Williams has no shot. Perkins, as good as she is, is also kind of cloying and will not be the winner here. Kristen Wiig is very talented but I don’t think the voters are going to award her for all her character work. This leaves Krakowski, who is fabulous on 30 Rock and everybody’s darling, Amy Poehler. Poehler will edge out Krakowski even with all of the support for Rock.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
o William Shatner – Boston Legal – ABC
o Christian Clemenson – Boston Legal – ABC
o Aaron Paul – Breaking Bad – AMC
o William Hurt – Damages – FX
o Michael Emerson – Lost – ABC
o John Slattery – Mad Men – AMC
Last Year’s Winner – Zeljko Ivanek
Yet another category where last year’s winner wasn’t nominated this year. Boston Legal is old news so both Shatner and Clemenson should be out of the running. Besides Shatner won like 7 times already. William Hurt was fine on Damages, but I don’t see him winning for it. This leaves Aaron Paul, Michael Emerson and John Slattery. Slattery is terrific on Mad Men, but I don’t think this is his year. Paul gave a breakout performance this season, but Emerson has an incredibly complex role that makes him mysterious, creepy and sympathetic all at the same time. This prediction is more from my heart than my gut; Michael Emerson will win and represent the best show ever.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
o Cherry Jones – 24 – FOX
o Rose Byrne – Damages – FX
o Sandra Oh – Grey’s Anatomy – ABC
o Chandra Wilson – Grey’s Anatomy – ABC
o Dianne Wiest – In Treatment – HBO
o Hope Davis – In Treatment – HBO
Last Year’s Winner – Dianne Wiest
Although there is a chance of the Grey’s ladies cancelling each other out, Wilson deserves to be awarded for her fine work on Anatomy. She is the heart and soul of the show and has lost 3 times in this category. It’s time for her to win.
Outstanding Host for a Reality or Reality-Competition Program
o Ryan Seacrest – American Idol – FOX
o Tom Bergeron – Dancing With the Stars – ABC
o Heidi Klum – Project Runway – Bravo
o Jeff Probst – Survivor – CBS
o Phil Keoghan – The Amazing Race – CBS
o Padma Lakshmi, Tom Colicchio – Top Chef – Bravo
Last Year’s Winner – Jeff Probst
This is a tough call. The voters tend to sound like broken records in the reality categories based on The Amazing Race winning Outstanding Reality show for the last 7 years or so. Based on that I’m going with Probst.