Since it was announced that the book would be adapted to film, the inevitable Twilight and Harry Potter comparisons have sprung up all over the internet, because, let’s face it; no other books were ever turned into movies. Seriously, beyond the fact that each of the above is based on a best-selling series’ aimed at young adults, the stories couldn’t be more different. The success of The Hunger Games beyond its opening weekend will largely depend on how Lionsgate markets the film to those who are unfamiliar with the books, what other films are in theatres at the time, word of mouth and least of all, critic’s reviews. As someone who has never read the books, I can tell you that the trailer inspired a marginal amount of interest from me. I kind of want to see the film, but it’s certainly not something I’m drooling with anticipation to see. I’m guessing that Lionsgate is going for a slow burn here with more action packed trailers arriving closer to The Hunger Games release date. Unfortunately, they are not great at marketing their films in general, which may cause The Hunger Games to not meet its full box office potential. 

Although the release schedule can change drastically before its anticipated release date on March 23^rd, as of now, The Hunger Games will have some competition on its opening. The weekend prior, Relativity Media unleashes its Snow White film Mirror, Mirror but I expect this to be one of the biggest bombs of the year. It will also have to contend with the third weekend of Disney’s John Carter which will likely eat into its opening potential a bit. The films second weekend will be its true test when it competes with Warner Bros.’ Wrath of the Titans. Titans will distract many young males who may have otherwise given The Hunger Games a look after hearing good things about it. For the record, I don’t think that Titans is going to perform as well as the first film, I was highly disappointed with that film (as I’m sure many others were) and I will not be seeing the sequel. Beyond that, it should be smooth sailing the rest of April. That is if the film is anywhere as good as the book it is based on. My guess is that it will be.

Back to needless comparisons, I don’t believe that The Hunger Games will open as high as the first Twilight film ($69.6 million) but it should outperform the opening weekend of Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief ($31.2 million), another film based on a best-selling series aimed at young adults. My guess is that The Hunger Games will debut somewhere in the middle of this range and enjoy an opening weekend take of about $50 million. Traders on the Hollywood Stock Exchange currently have The Hunger Games (HSX: HGAME $184.70) priced at $184.70 per share, meaning that they expect the film to gross $184.7 million after four weekends in theatres. I believe this estimate is too high and think the film will likely gross about $125 million during its first four weekends with a total of about $145 million by the time it exits theatres. I expect the film to be a solid earner for Lionsgate that will lead to even more lucrative sequels that could collect in the neighborhood of $250 million each.