With the Academy Award ceremony in less than a month, I thought it would be a good time to predict which movies will walk away with the little gold, bald guy. Leading the pack with 13 nominations, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button would seem like the front runner, but it is not. Button will probably receive quite a few Oscars, but not many in the major awards category. The film to watch out for is clearly Slumdog Millionaire with its 10 nods and major momentum from other award wins including the top prizes at SAG, The Producers Guild and The Golden Globes. Let’s take a look category by category.

 

 

 

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

This is essentially a 3 picture race with both Frost/Nixon and The Reader having no chance at the big prize.  Milk has a shot due to it being a true story about a gay politician and the Academy loves true stories about people who over come tremendous odds to become successful. Slumdog Millionaire has the most momentum going into Oscar night, sweeping all the major awards at SAG, Producers Guild and Golden Globe ceremonies. Not to mention that the Academy always loves an underdog and Slumdog certainly fits that bill. This leaves The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, the film with the most nominations. Button has all the right ingredients to win, good box office, an original story and a talented, handsome movie star playing a less than glamorous role and hiding under a bunch of makeup. The film in many ways echoes Forrest Gump and its multiple nominations back in 1994. Forrest Gump also had to compete with an indie flick that had major momentum, Pulp Fiction. Pulp didn’t wind up stealing the big prize from Gump, mostly because of its violent subject matter. This will not be a problem for Slumdog. Normally the film with the most nods would be the front runner in this category, but Button is in for a major upset due to the seemingly unstoppable surge of good will towards Slumdog. And the Oscar goes to Slumdog Millionaire.

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Stephen Daldry, The Reader

This is essentially the same race as Best Picture, and usually what wins one, will win the other, but the Academy has in the past rewarded one film for Best Picture while giving a different film the Best Director award. The perfect example is the 1998 Oscars. Shakespeare in Love won Best Picture while Steven Spielberg won Best Director for Saving Private Ryan. This could mean that David Fincher will win for directing Benjamin Button, but I don’t think so. Danny Boyle will more than likely walk away with the statue for his little movie that could, Slumdog Millionaire.

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

This is the toughest category to call with each actor nominated having a strong possibility of winning. Let’s start with the actor least likely to win, Richard Jenkins. This is Jenkins first nomination and probably his prize as well. The Visitor is a small film and doesn’t have much momentum behind it, so Jenkins chances are slim at best. Brad Pitt gave an understated, heartfelt performance as the titular character in Benjamin Button, but unfortunately this year it probably won’t be enough. Most of the Academy will realize that this is not Pitt’s last invitation to the ball and this could work against him. The Academy always loves to award a body of work and some of Pitt’s fellow nominees may not have another chance at the gold. This brings us to Frank Langella whose never been nominated for an Oscar in his 40+ year career. Langella has had a varied career, playing everything from Dracula to Sherlock Holmes to Skeletor to Richard Nixon and this may be seen as a chance to right a wrong and award an incredible actor for his long career. He’s already won the Tony for playing Nixon, why not an Oscar? Then there’s comeback kid, Mickey Rourke. The Academy always loves a comeback. My question is how this could be a comeback after Rourke just had a comeback in 2005 with Sin City. Rourke won the Golden Globe for Best Actor but his momentum has slowed down since not being rewarded by his peers at the Screen Actor Guild Awards. Instead SAG chose to award Sean Penn for his performance as Harvey Milk. Penn has had as many nominations as the other 4 nominees combined and just won in 2003 for his performance in Mystic River. Again, more than likely this will not be his last nomination either. In the end, I think sentimentality will win out and Frank Langella will go home with the prize.

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

This is another really tough category and to me it comes down to a 2 woman fight, between Meryl Streep, largely considered the greatest actress ever and the future Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet. Angelina Jolie has a couple of things working against her. First the film, Changeling, really has no heat behind it. Second she already has won the Oscar in 2000 for Girl, Interrupted. However, director Clint Eastwood does have a talent for steering his actors toward Oscars as evidenced by both Sean Penn and Hillary Swank. Anne Hathaway is still at the beginning of what will probably be a brilliant career and the nomination in this case is most certainly her reward. With the bigger name actresses battling it out, Melissa Leo does have a chance of sneaking in and stealing the statue for her nitty-gritty turn as a desperate mother in Frozen River, but as I said earlier, this comes down to a 2 woman fight. Winslet has been nominated for the Oscar 5 times before this and has yet to win and this is a chance for the Academy to award an actress that is widely regarded as the best of her generation. Winslet has already won awards at The Golden Globes and SAG for her performance in The Reader, but they were in the supporting actress category. Does this hurt her chances? Me thinks it does. This leaves Oscar queen, Meryl Streep. True, Streep has 2 Oscars at home already and it seems like she is always nominated (14 times prior to now to be exact), but she hasn’t won since 1982 for Sophie’s Choice. That’s 26 years ago! It may be time for this extraordinary actress to be awarded again. She won the SAG award for this performance and I believe the force is with her on this one. And the Oscar goes to Meryl Streep.

Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

All of the actors above gave fine performances, but is anyone really wondering who will win? There is no way that the award isn’t given to the late Heath Ledger for his blistering turn as the Joker.

Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

This race is wide open with Marisa Tomei occupying the slot vacated by Kate Winslet in The Reader. Winslet has dominated this category at every awards show, so with her competing in the Best Actress category instead, this is anyone’s ball game. Let’s break it down. Marisa Tomei wasn’t nominated by SAG like her fellow nominees and she does already have an Oscar at home, so I’m guessing she will leave empty handed. Penelope Cruz gave a lovely performance in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, but it is very rare that the Academy will award a comedic performance over a dramatic one, so her chances are slim. Taraji P. Henson was terrific as Benjamin Button’s mother, but despite its 13 nominations, I don’t think this film has as much support as it should. Viola Davis is great in Doubt, but how could the Academy award an actress who is only in the film Doubt for 12 minutes and snub Davis’ co-star Amy Adams, who had a much bigger role. They can’t. Amy Adams has proven she has the versatility and chops to play a live action Disney Princess one minute and an inexperienced nun the next and not miss a beat. Out of all the nominees, she probably has the brightest future on screen and the Academy loves to give this award to those they believe will deliver future excellence. And the Oscar goes to Amy Adams.

Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
WALL-E

The Best Screenplay award is usually a consolation prize. That would mean that Milk wins after losing in all of the other major categories.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Doubt

This comes down to a fight between Slumdog and Button, but with the consolation prize theory in mind, I will say this will be awarded to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

WALL-E
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda

Bolt and Kung Fu Panda are both terrifically entertaining movies, but neither can hold a candle to the visual poetry of WALL-E. Hands down, WALL-E is the winner.

As for the rest of the categories, I believe Benjamin Button will dominate the costume, makeup and visual effects categories, The Dark Knight will dominate the sound effects category, Slumdog will dominate the music categories along with cinematography. We’ll see if I’m right on February 22^nd.