Paramount’s “Thor” Storms into Theatres
By Bill Bonfanti and Tzukai Hung
Opening Weekend Box Office Predictions
Predictions for the Weekend of May 6-8, 2011
|
Title (Distributor)
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HSX Market Forecast
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HSX Staff “Whisper” Forecast
|
FilmGo Forecast
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HSX Market 4-Week Forecast
|
|
Thor (Paramount)
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|
$M
|
$72.0M
|
|
|
Something Borrowed
(Warner Bros.)
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|
$M
|
$14.0M
|
|
|
Jumping the Broom (Sony/TriStar)
|
|
$M
|
$8.0M
|
|
Forecasts as of May _. Click on the hyperlinked numbers above to see the latest HSX forecasts.
WEEKEND OVERVIEW
The summer movie season “officially” starts this weekend with the release of Paramount/Marvel Studio’s Thor starring Chris Hemsworth, Anthony Hopkins and Natalie Portman. Thor is the first of four superhero movies opening this summer along with X-Men: First Class, Green Lantern and Captain America: The First Avenger. Anticipation for the film is very high due to the fact that it is the third film from Marvel Studios that will lead directly into next summer’s superhero ensemble film, The Avengers. Two other films open in the wake of Thor this weekend, both aimed at female audiences; Warner Bros. rom-com Something Borrowed starring Ginnifer Goodwin and Kate Hudson and urban romantic comedy, Jumping the Broom from Sony Screen Gems. We’re not expecting too much from either of these films, but both should be moderate hits at the box office. The overall Top 10 has outperformed last year for the last three weeks, but it is doubtful that the trend will continue this weekend despite what is expected to be a strong debut for Thor. Last year Iron Man 2 kicked off the summer, opening with $128.1 million and Thor will not be able to compete with that. Based on FilmGo.net’s estimates, the overall Top 10 should be down a scant 9% or so.
THOR
Thor based on one of the most popular characters in the Marvel Universe “officially” kicks off the summer movie season (although Fast Five beat Thor to the punch last weekend). The PG-13 rated film stars Chris Hemsworth as the titular character and Natalie Portman as his love interest. Marvel has done a terrific job of bringing their comic book heroes to life and judging by the trailer for Thor, they’ve done it once again. The reviews for the film have been incredibly strong and this may convince the more casual moviegoer that Thor is worth a trip to the theatre. Marvel and distributor Paramount have launched a lengthy marketing campaign with the trailer hitting theatres many months ago. Fans seem to be drooling for this film and will certainly fuelThor to a strong opening weekend. That being said, Thor will likely not reach the heights of Iron Man or Wolverine (two films based on Marvel characters that also kicked off their respective summers). In the case of Wolverine, the clawed mutant is way more popular than the Norse god. Had Wolverine not been a fourth film in the X-Men franchise, it very well could’ve would’ve opened bigger than Iron Man. Audience fatigue for the franchise definitely diminished Wolverine’s box office potential. It will be interesting to see if the downward trend will continue for the franchise with the release of X-Men: First Class this June.
Iron Man is slightly more popular and recognizable than Thor, but Iron Man’s gross was also largely affected by the brilliant casting of Robert Downey Jr., whose charm and comic sensibility was a perfect match for Iron Man’s alter ego Tony Stark. That’s not to say that Hemsworth isn’t ideally cast as Thor, but the actor has yet to establish the goodwill that Downey has. Thor being a Norse god may turn off some of the more casual movie goers who easily became emerged in Iron Man’s world, thus stifling its box office potential. The film is in 3D and despite the backlash that is currently happening; this is a film that will benefit from all the premium priced tickets being sold. As the first superhero movie in 3D (unless you count the piss-poor 3D effects in The Green Hornet) fans will be lining up to see the film in the extra dimension.
Kicking off the summer, Thor should easily be able to attain a strong opening, but its legs may be cut short by all the summer competition coming its way. The weekend following its release should be okay as only Priest is opening to challenge it, but after that Thor will have to contend with Pirates of the Caribbean 4, Kung Fu Panda 2, The Hangover Part II, X-Men: First Class and Super 8. That only takes us to the second weekend in June so as you can see, this is a highly competitive summer movie season. Traders on the Hollywood Stock Exchange are anticipating an opening of _ while FilmGo.net is forecasting a thunderous debut of $72 million.
SOMETHING BORROWED
Warner Bros. romantic comedy Something Borrowed should serve as smart counter-programming to the testosterone laced Thor from Marvel Studios. The film, squarely aimed at the date crowd may have a difficult time, however, because most men are going to want to see Thor and their women may be convinced to join them due to Natalie Portman’s co-starring role. That aside, women over the age of 25 will flock to this film with or without their mates. The PG-13 rated film features a great cast including Ginnifer Goodwin, Kate Hudson, John Krasinski and Colin Egglesfield, but with the exception of Hudson, none of these actors have yet to prove themselves at the box office. Hudson herself is hit or miss; for every hit like 2003’s How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days ($105.8M total) there’s a miss like 2008’s My Best Friend’s Girl ($19.2M total) making her completely unreliable. Hudson did earn box office gold for Bride Wars ($58.7 million total) which once again had her at odds with her best friend. They were fighting over a banquet hall for their weddings, not a man, but the similarities are certainly there.
Aside from being a good counter-programming move, Something Borrowed will benefit from being the first romantic comedy to occupy multiplexes since the release of Adam Sandler’s Just Go With It this past February. This weekend’s Jumping the Broom is also a romantic comedy, but that film will largely be attracting African-American audiences and shouldn’t eat into Borrowed’s potential all that much. The long term outlook for the film is a bit rocky as the following weekend, Bridesmaids starring Kristen Wiig walks down the aisle and will all but steal away Something Borrowed’s target audience. Bridesmaids will probably not be a massive hit, but it could be looking at an opening weekend just south of $20 million. HSX traders are expecting an opening of _ and FilmGo.net is predicting a $14 million debut.
JUMPING THE BROOM
Jumping the Broom from Sony Screen Gems is a romantic comedy aimed at African-American audiences starring Paula Patton, Laz Alonso and Angela Basset. The film is about two African-American families from different economic backgrounds who come together to celebrate a wedding on Martha’s Vineyard. Generally films aimed at African-Americans don’t fare that well at the box office unless the name Tyler Perry is attached to it. The best comparison for the PG-13 rated film would be last year’s Our Family Wedding ($7.6 million opening/$20.2 million total) which was aimed at the same audience and had a very similar storyline. Another strong comparison would be romantic comedy Just Wright ($8.3 million opening/$21.5 million total) starring Queen Latifah and Common. Wright was released during the second weekend of last year’s summer movie season and failed to make much of an impact at the box office. Traders on HSX are expecting a weekend debut of _ while FilmGo.net has modest expectations for the film, predicting an $8 million opening. Weekend Predictions for Holdover Films
Predictions for the Weekend of May 6-8, 2011
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Title (Distributor)
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Week #
|
Gross to Date
|
FilmGo Forecast
|
HSX Market 4-Week Forecast
|
|
Fast Five (Universal)
|
2
|
$M
|
$31.9M (-63%)
|
$M
|
|
Prom (Disney)
|
2
|
$M
|
$2.7M (-42%)
|
$M
|
|
Hoodwinked Too: Hood vs. Evil (The Weinstein Co.)
|
2
|
$M
|
$1.8M (-55%)
|
$M
|
|
Madea’s Big Happy Family (Lionsgate)
|
3
|
$M
|
$5.1M (-48%)
|
|
|
Water for Elephants (20th Century Fox)
|
3
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$M
|
$5.2M (-44%)
|
|
|
African Cats (Disney)
|
3
|
$M
|
$1.1M (-55%)
|
|
|
Rio (20th Century Fox)
|
4
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$M
|
$9.2M (-38%)
|
|
|
Scream 4 (Dimension Films)
|
4
|
$M
|
$770K (-65%)
|
N/A
|
|
Soul Surfer (FilmDistrict/TriStar)
|
5
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$M
|
$2.2M (-36%)
|
N/A
|
Forecasts and grosses as of May _. Click on the hyperlinked numbers above to see the latest HSX forecasts.
Preview of Films Opening Next Weekend
Predictions for the Weekend of May 13-15, 2011
The new films opening in wide release the weekend of May 13th are: Bridesmaids (HSX: BRDSM $) and Priest (HSX: PRIES $).
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Title (Distributor)
|
HSX Market Forecast
|
HSX Staff “Whisper” Forecast
|
FilmGo Forecast
|
HSX Market 4-Week Forecast
|
|
Bridesmaids (Universal)
|
|
$M
|
$18.0M
|
|
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Priest
(Sony Screen Gems)
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$M
|
$13.0M
|
|
Forecasts as of May _. Click on the hyperlinked numbers above to see the latest HSX forecasts.
About the Authors
Tzukai Hung is Markets Director of the Hollywood Stock Exchange and monitors the "Whisper" numbers on HSX. For more information about HSX go to www.HSX.com.
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