By Bill Bonfanti on 2/27/2009 3:32 PM

If you go to the movies this weekend and you hear a lot of screaming, don’t be alarmed. It is just the sound of teenage girls swooning over the musical stylings of the Jonas Brothers. That’s right, attacking multiplexes this weekend is Disney’s Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience, which will easily take the #1 spot at the box office. The only other new release for the weekend is the video game inspired, Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li, which will be lucky to crack the top 10.

Teenage girls and their moms will be packing into theatres to see Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience this weekend, but can the Jonas boys reach the heights of Disney princess, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus? Last year at this time Disney released Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds 3-D to an astounding $31.1M from only 683 locations. Much has changed over the past year, however, and more theatres are able to show 3-D movies. Jonas Brothers will be debuting in nearly 1300 theatres, nearly double the amount that Hannah Montana premiered in. I don’t think this will be a major factor in the overall gross for the weekend though. Hannah Montana fans packed into every theatre seat available because her 3-D concert was advertised as a one week event. Upon seeing the weekend gross, Disney chose to give it a few more weeks in theatres. Jonas Brothers has no such caveat. If fans don’t make it out this weekend, they know they still have time in the weeks ahead to see the concert. Nonetheless, the fan base will be out in force this weekend, so the real question becomes, who has more fans, Miley Cyrus or the Jonas Brothers? I think the fan base for Miley Cyrus is a touch bigger. I would expect Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience to make much less because of this. .Look for the Jonas boys to rack up about $18M this weekend.

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By Bill Bonfanti on 2/23/2009 12:29 PM

Tyler Perry’s latest Madea Goes to Jail easily took the #1 spot this weekend, while sophomoric comedy, Fired Up fizzled out, debuting in ninth place.

Madea Goes to Jail was Tyler Perry’s best debut ever, grossing $41.1 over the weekend and easily outpacing his previous record holder, Madea’s Family Reunion, which debuted to $30M, 3 years ago. Madea’s weekend take was way above my $26M prediction. The most impressive thing about Madea’s debut was the per screen average. Madea made approximately $20,000 per screen, 4 times its closest competition, Coraline, which made $5,000 per screen.

High School cheerleading comedy, Fired Up, debuted in ninth place with $6M, exactly as I thought. The movie should finish its run with about $17M, but may have...

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By Bill Bonfanti on 2/20/2009 5:24 PM

This weekend at multiplexes, movie goers are offered 2 new releases and a final chance to see the nominees before the Oscar ceremony on Sunday night. Tyler Perry offers his seventh movie in just 3 years, Madea Goes to Jail and Fired Up will try to entertain teenage boys looking for a laugh.

It will certainly be no surprise when Madea Goes to Jail opens at #1 this weekend. The real question is whether the return to Tyler’s signature character, Madea, will give him his largest opening yet or will it continue the box office decline of Perry’s films? My guess is that Madea Goes to Jail will not be Tyler’s best debut, but I expect to open better than Perry’s latest films, such as The Family That Preys, which opened to $17.3M less than 6 months...

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By Bill Bonfanti on 2/16/2009 2:05 PM

It seems like people can’t get enough of the movies. This was the largest President’s Day weekend in box office history, hot on the heels of a record breaking Martin Luther King weekend just a few short weeks ago. What’s going on? Is it the quality of the movies currently playing in multiplexes everywhere? I don’t think so. Could it be that the state of the economy has people so worried that they need the 2 hour escape from their lives that movies so ably provide? That seems about right. People will always turn to entertainment to get through the dark times. Just look at the top 10 this weekend. The steepest decline was for the movie Push, which dropped only 32%. Normally a movie like Push would have a drop of 50% or more in its second weekend. Even the critically...

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By Bill Bonfanti on 2/13/2009 12:32 PM

Both love and fear are in the air as both Friday the 13th and Valentine’s Day fall this weekend. Sort of a weird combo. This would’ve been a good time to premier a new genre of film, the Romantic horror film. A Nightmare on Valentine’s Day tells the tale of a love sick Freddy Krueger who just wants to meet the woman of his dreams (nightmares) and start a family. All kidding aside, movie goers are offered 3 new choices, the remake of horror classic, Friday the 13th, comedy Confessions of a Shopaholic and crime thriller, The International.

Producer Michael Bay takes another stab at relaunching another hit horror franchise from the 80’s, Friday the 13th. Bay has previously relaunched The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, The Hitcher and The Amityville Horror...

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By Bill Bonfanti on 2/9/2009 1:12 PM

The February box office is off to a great start as He’s Just Not That Into You opened strong at #1, new kids flick, Coraline opened to better numbers than expected and last week’s champ, Taken, displayed great legs, dipping only 18% from last weekend’s $24.7M bow.

He’s Just Not That Into You opened to an impressive $27.4M, a notch above my $26M forecast.   Major star power, a good marketing campaign that targeted men as well as women and a built in audience from the best-selling self help book of the same name pulled in audiences despite mediocre reviews. With Valentine’s Day falling on a Saturday, He’s Just Not That Into You should have another great weekend in front of it and possibly see an overall gross of $100M by the end of its run.

Coraline,...

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By Bill Bonfanti on 2/5/2009 4:48 PM

This weekend at theatres, moviegoers are offered 4 new releases. Romantic comedy He’s Just Not That Into You arrives in time for Valentine’s Day, comedy sequel The Pink Panther 2 slinks into theatres, new kid flick Coraline opens and teenage boys can look forward to the sci-fi action movie, Push.

He’s Just Not That Into You with its huge cast including Jennifer Aniston, Drew Barrymore, Ben Affleck, Jennifer Connolly and Justin Long is the film to beat this weekend. With Valentine’s Day next week and no real competition in this genre, this is the perfect date movie. The movie also has a built in audience from the best selling relationship book of the same name and of course that magnificent cast. Expect He’s Just Not That Into You to debut to about $26M this weekend and for it to have a nice hold next weekend with Valentine’s Day falling on Saturday.

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By Bill Bonfanti on 2/2/2009 12:16 PM

Former Jedi Knight, Liam Neeson, stormed the box office this weekend as his new action movie, Taken, opened at #1. The fourth horror movie to be released in the last 4 weeks, The Uninvited, stumbled out of the gates, failing to reach the heights of other recent horror films. The latest romantic comedy starring Renee Zellweger, New in Town, failed to counter program the Super Bowl this weekend, opening to poor numbers in 8th place.

Liam Neeson stars as a former government operative whose daughter is kidnapped in Taken. The film opened to a much stronger than expected $24.6M, proving that audiences were hungry for a new action film. Taken’s strong debut is the second highest debut on Super Bowl weekend behind last year’s Hannah Montana concert, which bowed to a massive $31.1M. The film also...

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By Bill Bonfanti on 1/30/2009 2:30 PM

This weekend audiences are offered 3 new choices at the multiplex; an action thriller, the fourth horror thriller in as many weeks and a romantic comedy that hope to counter program the Super Bowl.

Liam Neeson stars in Taken as a former government operative who is forced out of retirement to rescue his abducted daughter. Neeson has had quite a career, but he is usually relegated to supporting roles, so his box office prowess is largely untested. However, Taken should perform fairly well over the weekend as there really is no competition and it has been sometime since there has been a straight up action flick at the box office. Look for Taken to take $20M out of the box office this weekend.

The Uninvited is a horror thriller about two teenage girls that suspect their soon to be step mother played by Elizabeth Banks is really a psychotic killer. Is it me or is Elizabeth Banks the hardest...

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By Bill Bonfanti on 1/26/2009 2:36 PM

Kevin James enjoyed a second weekend at the top of the box office with his first leading role as Paul Blart: Mall Cop narrowly beating Underworld: Rise of the Lychans. Brendan Fraser’s latest adventure flick, Inkheart, stumbled out of the gates opening in seventh place and this weekend also saw a major surge for award winner Slumdog Millionaire and a minor one for multiple Academy Award nominee The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. 

Paul Blart: Mall Cop had a great second weekend dropping a slim 33% to gross $21.5M, right in line with my $19M forecast. This brings its total up to an impressive $64.8M. Mall Cop should end its run in the vicinity of $110M, making James a bankable leading man in this genre and possibly a future as the King of Screens.

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