This weekend two new films open in wide release; Disney/Pixar’s animated sequel Cars 2 and Columbia Pictures’ raunchy, anti-rom-com Bad Teacher starring Cameron Diaz. Both of these films will likely be hits and will help get the box office back on track after last weekend’s dip of 22.8% in comparison to last year. Based on my estimates of an overall gross of about $154.5 million for the Top 10, this weekend should be basically flat with last year when Sony’s Grown Ups and 20^th Century Fox’s Knight and Day pushed the overall Top 10 to a $154.1 million total. 

Despite terrible reviews from critics, Warner Bros. Green Lantern opened at #1 this weekend and came within striking distance of the opening of well-reviewed superhero movie X-Men: First Class. The word of mouth is sure to be dreadful for the film and in the weeks ahead Green Lantern will likely not experience the strong holds of fellow comic book flicks, Thor and X-Men. 20^th Century Fox’s family comedy Mr. Popper’s Penguins starring Jim Carrey opened in 3^rd place for the weekend, while Paramount’s Super 8 held strong, securing the runner-up position.

Warner Bros. intergalactic superhero flick Green Lantern starring Ryan Reynolds lit up the box office Friday with an estimated $22 million debut. In comparison, Marvel’s Thor had a thunderous Friday debut of $25.5 million leading to an opening weekend total of $65.7 million, while X-Men: First Class pulled in $21.4 million on its opening Friday and $55.1 million on its opening weekend. Green Lantern should debut with a number comfortably in the middle of those two films. Saturday and Sunday drop offs could be higher for Lantern than for either Thor or the X-Men, because the reviews for DC’s hero were abysmal, especially in comparison to the two Marvel films. 

This weekend two new films open in wide release; Warner Bros. intergalactic superhero film Green Lantern starring Ryan Reynolds and 20^th Century Fox’s family film Mr. Popper’s Penguins starring rubber-faced comedian Jim Carrey. Both of these films will likely have decent debuts, but will likely falter in the weeks ahead. One way or another, the total box office will be down from this time last year when Disney’s Toy Story 3 opened with a whopping $110.3 million. Based on my estimates for the Top 10, overall box office will be down about 18.9%. 

After a lengthy marketing campaign that started over a year ago, Paramount’s Super 8 from director J.J. Abrams enjoyed a solid debut on top of the charts. The reviews for the film have been terrific and should ensure that Super 8 holds up very well over the next few weekends. The only other new film to be released this weekend was family comedy Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer from Relativity Media. Although the film is based on the best-selling book series, fans of the series didn’t come out to support the film leading to a mild debut in 7^th place for the weekend. 

Paramount’s E.T. meets Cloverfield hybrid, Super 8 from director J.J. Abrams and producer Steven Spielberg enjoyed a solid debut on Friday collecting approximately $12 million (Plus $1.5 million from Thursday sneak previews). The film is on course for a weekend opening in the $35 million range unless the positive word of mouth translates to a huge Saturday gross. Having finally seen the film, I can tell you it is a terrific summer movie that relies on character as much as it does special effects wizardry.   If you are a fan of Spielberg’s earlier work from the 80’s, Super 8 is a can’t miss film. Paramount is claiming that the budget for the film is in the area of $50 million and if this is true, strong legs in the weeks to come will ensure a tidy profit for the studio.

This weekend filmgoers will finally learn the secret behind J.J. Abrams throwback to the 80’s sci-fi film Super 8 from Paramount. The marketing campaign started for this film more than a year ago with a teaser trailer that was shot before the film was made and the creature (monster or alien or something) has been kept out of view for the entire marketing campaign. The question is whether the secrecy behind the film will translate into a big opening weekend or will it cause audiences to feel ambivalent about the film? Also opening this weekend is family friendly Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer from Relativity Media which will likely experience a small opening weekend. Based on my estimates for the Top 10, the overall box office will be down a slight 2.1% for the weekend in comparison to last year when Sony’s The Karate Kid opened with an impressive $55.7 million. 

After a record setting Memorial Day weekend, the box office cooled down a bit this weekend with only one new film opening, 20^th Century Fox’s superhero prequel/reboot X-Men: First Class. Even though this was a fresh start for the franchise, it was still the fifth X-Men related film to open in just over a decade and based on the underwhelming opening, audiences have grown tired of the series. The good news for Fox is that the film has received stellar reviews from critics and audiences alike which could potentially lead to strong legs for the film in the weeks ahead.

20^th Century Fox’s prequel/reboot X-Men: First Class is proving to be a bit of a disappointment at the box office. The film grossed an estimated $21 million on Friday (including $3.3 million from Thursday midnight showings) and is on track to have a weekend debut in the mid $50’s. First Class has received high marks from critics so it is possible that the film will have strong legs in the weeks to come as word of mouth begins to spread, but I doubt that is going to happen. After the last two entries in the X-Men franchise failed to excite moviegoers, it is possible that some fans will never come back to the series, despite the glowing recommendation from critics. It is also a highly competitive summer movie season and First Class could get lost in the shuffle over the next few weeks. 

After a record setting Memorial Day weekend, the pace is going to continue this weekend with the release of 20^th Century Fox’s latest mutant extravaganza X-Men: First Class. Due to franchise fatigue and the absence of the series’ most popular character, Wolverine, X-Men: First Class will most likely not be able to match the openings of the last two films in the series, but it will still collect more money than the four new films that opened this time last year. Warner Bros. The Hangover Part II and Paramount’s Kung Fu Panda 2 should both enjoy healthy sophomore weekends fueling the overall Top 10 to a decisive win over last year. Based on my Top 10 estimates, the box office will be up about 34.2% this weekend with an estimated total of $183.1 million.