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Author: Bill Bonfanti Created: 7/17/2008 1:04 PM
Bill's box office predictions and more.

There are three new films opening in wide release on Wednesday, November 23rd, leading into Thanksgiving weekend, all of which are targeted at family audiences: Disney brings Jim Henson’s lovable creations back into theatres after a long hiatus with The Muppets, Sony hopes to spread a little holiday cheer with the yuletide themed Arthur Christmas and Paramount releases Martin Scorsese’s 3D adventure, Hugo. These three films are entering a marketplace that already currently has three films aimed towards families. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate $147.6 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, down about 12% from last year when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 and Disney’s Tangled led the overall Top 10 to a total of $167.8 million. On a side not, approximately 60% of the Top 10’s gross this weekend will come from family-centric films. 

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BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 18-20
There are two new films opening in wide release this weekend: Twilighters will be out in force as they try to propel the opening weekend of the penultimate film in the series, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 past the new record ($169.2 million) established over the summer by the final Harry Potter film and kids will be excited to see the return of cute, dancing penguins in Happy Feet Two from Warner Bros. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate $248.7 million over the weekend, up a substantial 25.8% from last year when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 led the overall Top 10 to a total of $184.5 million. This estimate will place this weekend among the Top 5 biggest weekends of all time at the box office.

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BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 11-13
There are three new films opening in wide release this weekend: The new Superman, Henry Cavill gets tested as a leading man in sandals and swords flick Immortals from Relativity Media, Adam Sandler plays twins in PG rated family comedy Jack and Jill from Sony and Clint Eastwood directs Leonardo DiCaprio in bio-pic, J. Edgar from Warner Bros.   It is a three-way race for the top spot this weekend with both newcomers, Immortals and Jack and Jill looking to stop two time champ, Puss In Boots from pulling a three-peat. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate $107.7 million over the weekend, the exact amount the Top 10 films earned  last year when animated comedy MegaMind from Paramount and speeding train thriller Unstoppable from 20th Century Fox ruled the charts.

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BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 4-6
There are two new films opening in wide release this weekend: Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy lead an all-star cast in PG-13 comedy caper Tower Heist from Universal and stoner buddies Harold and Kumar celebrate the holiday’s in R-rated comedy sequel A Very Harold & Kumar3D  Christmas from New Line Cinema.  Based on my estimates,  the Top 10 will generate $96.3 million over the weekend, down a whopping 30.3% from last year when animated comedy MegaMind from Paramount and R-rated comedy Due Date from Warner Bros. led the overall Top 10 to a total of $138.1 million. 

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BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF OCTOBER 28-30
There are three new films opening in wide release this weekend: Antonio Banderas takes his feline alter ego on a solo outing in animated spin-off Puss In Boots from DreamWorks, Justin Timberlake tackles an action role in sci-fi thriller In Time from 20th Century Fox and Johnny Depp channels his inner Hunter S. Thompson in The Rum Diary from FilmDistrict. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate $119.8 million over the weekend, up a substantial 30.1% from last year when horror flicks Saw VII from Lionsgate and Paranormal Activity 2 from Paramount led the overall Top 10 to a total of $83.7 million. 

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BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF OCTOBER 21-23
There are three new films opening in wide release this weekend: In what’s become an annual weekend before Halloween tradition, Paramount delivers low budget thrills and chills with the release of Paranormal Activity 3, writer/director Paul W.S. Anderson offers his take on a classic with The Three Musketeers from Summit Entertainment and Universal releases comedy sequel Johnny English Reborn starring Rowan Atkinson. Based on my estimates,  the Top 10 will generate $96.7 million over the weekend, down approximately 17.4% from last year when both Paramount’s Paranormal Activity 2 and Jackass 3D led the overall Top 10 to a total of $117 million. 

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BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF OCTOBER 14-16
There are three new films opening in wide release this weekend: Teenagers are once again banned from dancing in the remake of 1984’s Footloose from Paramount, Universal unleashes The Thing, the prequel to John Carpenter’s 1982 film of the same name and Steve Martin, Owen Wilson and Jack Black go bird watching in PG rated comedy The Big Year from 20th Century Fox. This is another weekend where it is anybody’s guess as to which film will come out on top of the box office heap with both reigning champ Real Steel and challenger Footloose neck in neck in terms of potential box office. My money is on Real Steel eking out a second first place finish, but it could really go either way. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate $77.4 million over the weekend, down a whopping 34% from last year when both Paramount’s Jackass 3D and Summit Entertainment’s Red opened way stronger than expected pushing the overall Top 10 to a total of $117.2 million. 

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BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF OCTOBER 7-9
This weekend two new films kick off the month of October:  Hugh Jackman stars as a deadbeat dad in PG-13 rated robot boxing drama Real Steel from DreamWorks and Touchstone Pictures and George Clooney stars and directs an all-star cast including Ryan Gosling, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Paul Giamatti in R-rated political thriller The Ides of March from Sony. The last few weekends have been a toss-up at the box office with a few films fighting it out for first place, but this weekend Real Steel will clearly be the champ. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate $88.3 million over the weekend, up approximately 12.9% from last year when Sony’s award season entry The Social Network and Warner Bros. Life As We Know It led the overall Top 10 to a total of $76.9 million. 

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BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 2
This weekend four new films will try to make a dent at the box office: Anna Faris revisits her ex-boyfriends to see if she missed out on Mr. Right in What’s Your Number? from New Regency Productions, Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Seth Rogen tackle cancer in dramedy 50/50 from Mandate Pictures, Daniel Craig and Rachel Weisz move in to a ghostly nightmare in Universal’s Dream House  and TriStar releases Christian family/small town police drama Courageous  from the producers of Fireproof. None of these newcomers are packing too much heat and they will be fighting for a place in the Top 5 while holdover films, The Lion King 3D, Dolphin Tale 3D and Moneyball duke it out for box office supremacy. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate $91.5 million over the weekend, up approximately 9.9% from last year when Sony’s award season entry The Social Network and Warner Bros. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole led the overall Top 10 to a total of $82.4 million. 

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EARLY WEEKEND ESTIMATES SEPTEMBER 23-25
Sony’s Moneyball starring Brad Pitt looks to be finishing first for the weekend with Disney’s Lion King 3D right behind it. The Brad Pitt starrer earned an estimated $6.7 million on Friday for a possible $21 million weekend, making it the highest weekend debut of all time for a baseball themed film. Reviews have been terrific and if the film receives any award season buzz (which it will), the film has a chance of nearing the $100 million mark by the end of its run in theatres. 

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