This weekend at the movies there are 3 new choices; family film, Race to Witch Mountain, horror remake, The Last House on the Left and raunchy comedy, Miss March. The big question this weekend however, is how well Watchmen will perform in its second outing? 

Race to Witch Mountain is an updated version of the classic Disney film series from the 70’s. The updated version stars Dwayne Johnson as a cab driver who picks up two teenagers who turn out to be aliens and need his help getting back to Witch Mountain. Johnson has carved out quite the career in Hollywood leaving his persona as wrestler The Rock in the dust and with his last film, The Game Plan, successfully has branded himself as a family friendly star. The Game Plan, also a Disney feature, opened to a robust $23M and went on to gross $90M. I believe Witch Mountain can top that. Parents will likely take their kids to see Witch Mountain because they are nostalgic for the original and know that this is a good wholesome property they can share with them. The film will also perform well due to the lack of competition. It has been quite a few weeks since a new kid friendly movie has been released and as evidenced by the continued box office strength of Paul Blart and Coraline, families love to go to the movies. So all in all, a family film that is an update of a beloved property and the power of The Rock should push Witch Mountain to an opening of about $27M this weekend.

The Last House on the Left is also a remake of a classic horror film directed by Wes Craven in the 70’s, who serves as producer this time around. This is the latest in a string of remade horror movies that includes this year’s My Bloody Valentine and Friday the 13^th. Both of those films performed very well in their opening weekends, but I don’t expect House on the Left to have the same impact. Valentine had the added cache of being shown in 3-D and Jason from Friday the 13^th may be the most popular on screen killer of all time. Left will benefit from a lack of competition in the horror genre and opening on Friday the 13^th can only help as well. Look for The Last House on the Left to make about $15M this weekend.

This weekend’s last new release is dirty comedy, Miss March, from the creators of “The Whitest Kids you Know”, a sketch comedy show on IFC and also seen on MySpace. Miss March tells the tale of a teen that on the night he is going to lose his virginity has an accident that puts him in a coma. He awakens four years later to find that his girlfriend is now a Playboy Playmate and the race to deflower himself begins. This is the fourth movie in less than a year that focuses on boys trying to get laid, behind College, Sex Drive and this year’s Fired Up. With no visible stars and a plot that has been rehashed a zillion times since 1982’s Porky’s, expect Miss March to open to a mild $3M.

This brings us to hold over from last week, Watchmen. The film grossed $55.2M in its debut frame, which was impressive for a nearly 3 hour movie, but not when you consider that $24.5M of that total was grossed on the opening day. Watchmen suffered a decline of 25% on Saturday and an additional 40% or so on Sunday. This indicates that the core audience for this film came out to see it already. Word of mouth cannot be counted on here as reviews have been mixed as has audience reaction. As I’ve said before, it is a real shame, because I thought Watchmen was brilliant and deserves to be a huge hit. That being said, I expect Watchmen to have a large drop off of 65% to add another $20M to its total this weekend. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.