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Mar 16

Written by: Bill Bonfanti
3/16/2009 3:06 PM 

Dwayne Johnson, the former Rock, had his sixth #1 opening as families flocked to see Race to Witch MountainThe Last House on the Left posted solid numbers for a horror flick opening in third and raunchy comedy, Miss March failed to excite moviegoers, opening in 10th place. Last weekend’s champ, Watchmen, suffered a big decline, falling nearly 70%, just as I expected.
Race to Witch Mountain got off to a solid start grossing $25M (a little lower than my $27M forecast) and taking the top spot for the weekend. Dwayne Johnson continued to show his appeal as a family friendly star with Race, his second film for Disney. The first, The Game Plan, opened to $23M and found its way to an overall $90M. Race to Witch Mountain’s life at the box office should follow the same trajectory and possibly make its way to the $100M mark.
The Wes Craven produced horror remake (he directed the 1972 original), The Last House on the Left had a decent debut, taking in $14.7M, in line with my $15M prediction. House on the Left continues the current trend of remaking horror films from the 70’s and 80’s, such as this year’s My Bloody Valentine and Friday the 13th. Left didn’t perform as well on it’s opening, but Valentine had the cache of being shown in 3-D, while Friday the 13th had… well it had… Jason Vorhees, the most popular onscreen killer of all time.
Yet another tale of a young man desperate to lose his virginity, Miss March fizzled at the box office, making a paltry $2.4M, very close to my $3M calculation. March is another in a long line of raunchy comedies that have bombed over the past year, including College, Fired Up and Sex Drive. Perhaps it is time to give the soft core, lose my virginity genre a break.
Among holdovers, Watchmen took a big fall in its second weekend, plummeting 67% and grossing $18M, bringing its total to $86M. This was right in line with the 65% drop that I predicted and Watchmen should stabilize somewhat next week, dropping perhaps 45 – 50%. The anti super hero flick should fight its way to about $120M - $130M when it is all said and done. Sleeper hit, Taken, starring Liam Neeson, continues to impress, dropping a mere 9% this weekend, to take in another $6.7M. Taken now stands at $127M and should have no trouble crossing the $150M mark. To see how the rest of my predictions fared, check out the chart below.
RANK
TITLE
MARCH  13-15
MARCH 6-8
% CHANGE
# OF THEATRES
# OF WEEKS
TOTAL
BILL SAID
1
Race to Witch Mountain
$25M
N/A
N/A
3187
1
$25M
$27M
2
Watchmen
$18M
$55.2M
-67%
3611
2
$86M
$20M    -65%
3
The Last House on the Left
$14.7M
N/A
N/A
2401
1
$14.7M
$15M
4
Taken
$6.7M
$7.3M
-9%
2858
7
$127M
$5.9M    -20%
5
Madea Goes to Jail
$5.1M
$8.5M
-40%
2203
4
$83.2M
$4.7M    -45%
6
Slumdog Millionaire
$5M
$6.8M
-26%
2578
18
$132M
$4.4M   -35%
7
Paul Blart: Mall Cop
$3.1M
$4.1M
-25%
2281
9
$138M
$2.7M     -35%
8
He’s Just Not That Into You
$2.9M
$4M
-28%
1890
6
$88.9M
$2.6M    -30%
9
Coraline
$2.6M
$3.3M
-19%
1768
6
$69.1M
$2.3M    -30%
10
Miss March
$2.4M
N/A
N/A
1742
1
$2.4M
$3M

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