This weekend 3 new movies are unleashed on audience; one surefire blockbuster, a mid-range hit and a box office dud. Monsters vs. Aliens is the surefire hit and will have no trouble at all taking the top spot this weekend. Even it was to only make a third of what I’m predicting it would still be #1. Based on a true story, spooky frightener, The Haunting in Connecticut will have a decent debut, while action flick, 12 Rounds starring the WWE’s John Cena will have a difficult time attracting an audience.

Monsters vs. Aliens is the latest from DreamWorks Animation (the Shrek movies, Madagascar) and it is poised to conquer multiplexes everywhere this weekend. The last 2 movies from DreamWorks Animation, Kung Fu Panda and Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, both opened north of $60M. It is unfair to compare Monsters vs. Aliens to Madagascar 2, because it is a sequel, but Kung Fu Panda is a perfect comparison. Both Panda and M vs. A feature great casts (M vs. A stars Reese Witherspoon, Seth Rogen, Hugh Laurie, Kiefer Sutherland to name but a few) and appeal to audiences of all ages. Prior to Kung Fu Panda, the only non sequel animated films to open with $50M or more were Pixar movies (Cars, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, etc.), but M vs. A has a real chance of continuing the trend. One key difference in the two films is their release dates; Panda was released in summer when kids are off from school, giving it the opportunity to have a substantial Friday gross on its opening weekend. Panda’s first day gross was $20.3M, making up a third of its overall first weekend gross of $60.2M. M vs. A will be lucky to make $10M on Friday and as long as it performs as well as Panda on Saturday and Sunday, that would put its weekend take at about $50M. However, M vs. A enjoys a caveat that Panda did not; Monsters is also playing in 3-D and on IMAX screens at higher ticket prices which should up its box office potential. That all being said, I think Monsters vs. Aliens will make about $58M this weekend.

The PG-13 rated supernatural thriller, The Haunting in Connecticut also comes out this weekend and should have a solid debut in second place. The Haunting is apparently based on a true story about a family that moves into a home in Connecticut that was previously a funeral home. Call it Poltergeist, the true story! The Haunting should appeal to teenagers looking for a fright along with avid horror fans and the based on a true story tagline will help as well. Look for The Haunting in Connecticut to debut to about $18M.

The last new film to be released this weekend, 12 Rounds, stars professional wrestler John Cena and is directed by Renny Harlin, the man behind great action flicks like Die Hard 2 and Cliffhanger and more recently, terrible movies Mindhunters and Driven. The question is which Renny Harlin directed this movie? My guess is the one responsible for Driven. In the movie, Cena must complete 12 challenges in order to get back his kidnapped girlfriend. This movie will primarily cater to wrestling fans and has little chance of pulling in any other audience. Look for 12 Rounds to launch quietly with a gross of about $5.5M.

Last weekend’s race for the #1 spot, becomes a race for #3 as Knowing, I Love You, Man and Duplicity all battle it out. Knowing topped the charts last weekend and will more than likely keep ahead of its competition this weekend as well. Despite poor reviews, I believe Knowing will drop a reasonable 45% to gross $13.4M. I Love You, Man will follow the same path as stars Paul Rudd and Jason Segel’s last movies Role Models and Forgetting Sarah Marshall, and should ease off about 35% to make another $11.8M. Much of its core audience of adults usually don’t rush out to films on opening weekends, so Duplicity starring Julia Roberts and Clive Owen should drop about 40% to $8.4M in its second outing. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.