The summer season arrives at multiplexes early this year as, Fast & Furious, the fourth movie in the street racing franchise speeds into theatres everywhere. Also opening this weekend, coming of age comedy, Adventureland, from Superbad director Greg Mottola. Fast & Furious should easily be able to take the box office crown this weekend from reigning champ, Monsters vs. Aliens, but expect those kooky creatures to put up a fight.

Fast & Furious, the fourth film in the franchise, brings together the cast of the 2001 original, The Fast and the Furious, Vin Diesel, Paul Walker, Jordana Brewster and Michelle Rodriguez for a new story about street racing. I understand that this may be exciting to fans of the franchise, but I myself, find everything from the poor title of the sequel (might be the worst sequel name ever) to the cast reunion to the familiar story line to be kind of a drag. Nonetheless, F & F will rule multiplexes this weekend and cruise to #1. 

The franchise has had a pretty interesting journey. After being a surprise hit in 2001, a sequel was quickly green lit, although star Vin Diesel and director Rob Bowman chose not to participate. Co-star Paul Walker took the wheel for the sequel and steered it to a higher opening weekend gross than the original, although the overall gross fell a few notches short. The next movie in the franchise, had a completely new cast led by Lucas Black and didn’t have nearly the same success as its predecessors. Let’s take a look.

The Fast and the Furious – 2001 – Opening Weekend - $40M – Overall - $144.5M
2 Fast 2 Furious – 2003 – Opening Weekend - $50.4M – Overall - $127.1M
The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift – 2006 - $23.9M – Overall - $62.6M

As you can see, after the 3^rd film underperformed, the franchise needed a reboot. The producers are hoping that bringing together the original cast is just the Midas touch that they need. With little competition in the action arena, Fast & Furious should perform well this weekend, but how well? I think that despite the presence of Diesel in the latest outing, interest in the franchise has waned and it won’t pull in as big an audience as the first film. However, ticket prices have gone up quite significantly over the last 8 years which will enable F & F to surpass the opening take of the original. Look for Fast & Furious to race its way to a $53M debut.

Adventureland, brought to you by Superbad director Greg Mottola, is about a recent college graduate who is forced to take a summer job working at a theme park to make ends meet. The film is loosely based on Mottola’s own experience working at a theme park, his inspiration for writing the film. The film stars Kristen Stewart (hot off of Twilight) and Jesse Eisenberg, who is best known for his role in the Indie hit, The Squid and the Whale. Adventureland also features not ready for primetime players, Bill Hader and Kristin Wiig of SNL. The marketing has played up the fact that Mottola was responsible for hit comedy, Superbad, but Adventureland is more sweet coming of age story than laugh till you hurt comedy. Launching in about 1800 theatres, Adventureland should make about $7M this weekend.

Among holdovers, Monsters vs. Aliens will continue to dominate family audiences and drop a reasonable 42% to gross an additional $34.4M. This will bring the hit toons gross to about $105M after only 10 days. Last week’s fright flick, The Haunting in Connecticut, had a great debut weekend, but there was a pretty large drop off from Friday to Sunday and that does not bode well for the future. I expect The Haunting to plummet about 60% to gross $9.2M.   To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.