Miley Cyrus proved once again this weekend that she is the queen of all teens as Hannah Montana The Movie opened to big numbers, easily taking the #1 spot. Seth Rogen’s 90^th movie, Observe and Report opened to middling results and Dragonball Evolution opened even worse than anticipated.

Hannah Montana The Movie collected $34M over the holiday weekend (very close to my $32M prediction) and easily ruled at the box office as the fanbase of tween girls were out in force. Hannah Montana had a brilliant debut Friday with its target audience of school age kids beginning spring vacation, bringing in $17.3M, half of its overall take. Sales fell about 40% on Saturday to $10.3M, while Sunday brought another nearly 40% drop to $6.4M. Given, the sales slip was due to the Easter holiday, but nonetheless, that large of a drop off from Friday to Sunday, does not bode well for the weeks to come. Last year, the Hannah Montana concert film grossed a total of $65M with ticket prices at $15 a pop. This would mean that about 4.3 million tickets were sold overall. The Movie collected $34M at average ticket prices ($7.20) which means about 4.7 million tickets were sold. If you follow those numbers, it is not a huge jump of logic to think that the fanbase has already been satisfied and that the future success of this movie depends on repeat business.   That being said, I expect Hannah Montana to experience a huge drop off next weekend, possibly as much as 70%.

Observe and Report, the latest comedy starring Seth Rogen, fizzled in 4^th place, earning only $11.1M (I predicted $12M), slightly better than the $10M opening of last fall’s Zack and Miri Make a Porno. Observe and Report had a quite a few obstacles to overcome and seems to have failed. First, there was the bewilderment of audiences everywhere, wondering how there could possibly be another movie about a mall cop so soon after the surprise hit Paul Blart: Mall Cop. Second, the R rating made the movie very difficult to market. The funnier parts in the movie were unable to be shown in commercials due to the raunchy nature of the movie and instead made Observe and Report look woefully unfunny. The next obstacle was the heightened controversy over a scene depicting “date rape” for comedic purposes… never a good idea. The last major obstacle was Seth Rogen himself. The man is way overexposed and audiences are beginning to tire of him. He needs to reign it in and take fewer roles if he wants to remain vital in the industry. Look for Observe and Report to end up with about $35M when all is said and done.

The weekend’s third and final new release, Dragonball Evolution, performed even worse than expected, opening in eighth place with $4.6M, even less than the $6M opening I predicted. Dragonball was a popular property in the late 90’s and it was far too late to release a film as evidenced by the poor reception of Evolution. Dragonball Evolution will be lucky to gross $10M by the time it is out of theatres.

Among holdovers, last weekend’s box office champ, Fast & Furious, dropped a very reasonable 59% from its record shattering opening weekend take of $70.9M, to $28.8M(I said $28.4M), bringing the grand total to $118M after only 10 days of release. With a few more laps ahead of it at the box office, the racing car sequel should be headed for a $160M finish line, making it the highest grossing movie in the 8 year old franchise. Monsters vs. Aliens benefitted from the holiday weekend dropping only 31% to scare up another $22.6M, better than the 40% drop off I forecasted. To see how the rest of my predictions fared, check out the chart below.