This weekend moviegoers have 3 new choices as Zac Efron’s first movie since graduating from High School Musical, 17 Again opens, Jason Statham returns in the action sequel, Crank: High Voltage and yet another political thriller with a great cast opens, State of Play. The real questions are whether the former Troy Bolton can open a flick on his own and how big a drop Hannah Montana The Movie is in for after a huge opening weekend. Let’s take a look.

I have to admit, initially I didn’t think Zac Efron would have a successful career after High School Musical, but I’ve changed my mind. I think 17 Again is a terrific vehicle for him to prove his chops and it will be a big hit. The question is how big? How many of his High School Musical fans will support him in this new role? My guess is quite a few and I believe he will pick up some new fans as well. 17 Again will easily open at #1 this weekend with about $24M.

Jason Statham returns to multiplexes this weekend with his latest action flick, Crank: High Voltage, a sequel to 2006’s Crank. Statham has a reliable fanbase and as such, guessing the weekend take for this one is fairly simple. Let’s take a look at how some of Statham’s other movies performed on their debut weekends.

The Transporter - $9.1M
The Transporter 2 - $16.5M
Crank - $10.5M
Death Race - $12.6M
Transporter 3 - $12M

As you can see, most of his action flicks fall within the same range, with sequels performing slightly better than their predecessors. However, this is Statham's 5th movie this year, so with that being said, I would expect Crank: High Voltage to perform slightly worse than the original. Look for an opening of about $9M.

Russell Crowe leads a stellar cast including Ben Affleck, Helen Mirren and Rachel McAdams in political thriller, State of Play. The film is receiving very good reviews, but the adult audience it is catering to, doesn’t generally rush out to see films on their opening weekends. That being said, I expect State of Play to open to about $13M on its way to about $50M.

With much of its target audience satisfied on its debut weekend, expect Hannah Montana The Movie to have a considerable drop this weekend. Look for the Disney princess to drop about 60% to $12.8M. Fast & Furious dropped nearly 60% in its second lap last weekend and should stabilize a bit its third time around the track. Look for the racing sequel to drop about 55% to $12.3M. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.