
There are 4 new choices at multiplexes this weekend, Obsessed starring Ali Larter, The Soloist starring Robert Downey Jr. and Jamie Foxx, Fighting starring Channing Tatum and Disney’s documentary Earth, which opened on Wednesday. Although Obsessed and The Soloist are just opening this weekend, I (and I’m sure others) feel like I’ve seen them both 5 times already due to the trailers basically showing the whole movies. Nonetheless, Obsessed will probably make enough coin to open at #1 and dethrone last week’s champ, 17 Again.
Obsessed starring Ali Larter and Beyonce is about a married man who is stalked by an obsessed woman from his office. I really can’t stand these types of movies, what I call the hand that rocks the cradle genre. I generally find these movies to be ridiculous and I can’t stand that I have to predict that this movie will open at #1. If it were up to me, the movie would either bomb or come out as a straight to DVD release. Unfortunately it is not for me to decide, only to predict. This genre usually performs okay at the box office, with recent examples like The Uninvited ($10.3M opening) and Lakeview Terrace ($15M opening) premiering to decent numbers. Obsessed will probably perform slightly better due to the presence of Beyonce and Ali Larter (hot off of Heroes) and despite the unimaginative title. I would look for Obsessed to make about $19M this weekend, enough to be #1 in a weak box office weekend.
The Soloist stars Robert Downey Jr. as a reporter who befriends a homeless man (Jamie Foxx) who happens to be a gifted musician. The Soloist was originally supposed to open last December, but was pushed back to April, more than likely to keep the film from getting lost in the shuffle among all the films competing for Oscars. This to me means that Paramount didn’t have any faith in The Soloist to receive any award nominations and that the film probably isn’t that good. This is also the reason why the trailer shows so much of the movie. Opening in just 1800 theatres, look for The Soloist to play to the tune of about $10M.
The last new release for the weekend is Fighting, a movie about… ummm… fighting. I thought Obsessed was an unimaginative title, but Fighting takes the cake. Fighting stars Channing Tatum as a guy who becomes involved in street fighting. Call it The Karate Kid of the 21st century. The audience for this will consist solely of teenage boys and young men and therefore it won’t make too big of a splash at the box office. Channing Tatum should have better luck this August when he headlines G.I.Joe: The Rise of Cobra. Fighting should fight its way to about $11M this weekend.
Disney’s documentary Earth narrated by James Earl Jones, follows three animal families and the amazing journeys that they take. The film was released on Wednesday in honor of Earth Day and should have a decent weekend ahead of it. Look for Earth to collect about $8.5M over the Friday to Sunday frame.
Among holdovers, last week’s champ, 17 Again, should have a decent hold and will slip about 48% to $12.3M. Russell Crowe’s political thriller, State of Play, should drop a reasonable 40% to gross another $8.4M. Jason Statham’s latest action flick, Crank: High Voltage opened to a disappointing $6.9M last week and should tumble 60% to collect a mere $2.8M. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.
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RANK
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TITLE
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BILL’S PREDICTION
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1
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Obsessed
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$19M
|
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2
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17 Again
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$12.3M -48%
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|
3
|
Fighting
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$11M
|
|
4
|
The Soloist
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$10M
|
|
5
|
Earth
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$8.5M
|
|
6
|
State of Play
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$8.4M -40%
|
|
7
|
Monsters Vs. Aliens
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$7.8M -40%
|
|
8
|
Hannah Montana: The Movie
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$6.7M -50%
|
|
9
|
Fast & Furious
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$5.3M -55%
|
|
10
|
Crank: High Voltage
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$2.8M -60%
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