This weekend at theatres, moviegoers will finally get to see the cool, rebooted version of Star Trek courtesy of J.J. Abrams. Also being released, Next Day Air starring Donald Faison (Turk on Scrubs) and Mos Def, but let’s be honest, this weekend is all about Captain Kirk and crew. The question this weekend is not whether the new U.S.S. Enterprise can fly (it can and it will), but how high can it fly? Trek will still have some competition for its target audience from Wolverine, but I don’t expect that to matter all that much. Let’s take a look.

Let me start by saying that I’m a big fan of J.J. Abrams, after all the man is responsible for the best TV show ever (in my opinion), Lost, not to mention Alias, Cloverfield, Mission Impossible III and his latest series, Fringe. In my opinion, Abrams can do no wrong and he is certainly the right guy to breathe life in to the faltering Star Trek franchise.   I’m also a fan of Star Trek. I wouldn’t refer to myself as a Trekkie and you definitely will never see me at a ST convention dressed as a Klingon, but I am a fan nonetheless. Upon seeing the trailer for the film, it was apparent to me that this Star Trek is for everyone, not just fans of the franchise or sci-fi in general. It truly looks incredible and will bring new audiences to the series, even ones who have sworn they would never see a Star Trek film. The reviews have been incredible, in fact the only negative ones that I’ve seen have been from Trek fans who are upset by the way the new Trek boldly sets up a new continuity for the franchise and isn’t completely true to the original vision of the series. These people need to lighten up. This new Trek is a reboot; therefore your old continuity is out the window.   Would these diehard fans prefer there to never be any new Star Trek movies? If not for this reimagining, Star Trek would probably never see the light of day again. But I digress. Let’s get back to the issue at hand… How much will Trek make at the box office? The new movie can’t really be compared to the ten other films in the franchise, but I still think we should look at the box office performance of the more notable films in the series. Take a look.

Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan – 1982 - $14.3M opening $79.9M total
At today’s ticket prices those numbers would be $34.9M opening $195M total
Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home – 1986 - $16.8M opening $109M total
At today’s ticket prices those numbers would be $32.5M opening $211M
Star Trek: First Contact – 1996 - $30.7M opening $92M total
At today’s ticket prices those numbers would be $49.9M opening $149M

Looking at those numbers, roughly 4.9 million tickets were sold for the opening of Star Trek II, 4.5 million were sold for the opening of Star Trek IV and 6.9 million tickets were sold for the opening of First Contact. Those tickets were all sold to Trekkies. I highly doubt that any of these movies brought in any non-fans on their openings. That being said, I’m sure that the new movie will easily sell as many tickets as First Contact did on its opening, which puts Trek at $50M for its maiden voyage. However, X-Men Origins: Wolverine probably sold nearly 12 million tickets last weekend and the movie was widely panned by critics, whereas Star Trek is being widely praised by critics, which should help bring a new audience to the franchise. Let’s up the number of tickets sold to 9 million. This would put the new Trek at $65M for its first mission. But wait there’s more. All these numbers are based on the average ticket price of $7.18, but what about IMAX showings? Those tickets are $12 a pop. This makes me think that Star Trek will easily warp its way to about $75M. The film will play well over the next couple of weeks due to positive word of mouth and I think the new, improved U.S.S. Enterprise will beam up $250M by the end of its voyage.

The only other new release in theatres this weekend is comedy, Next Day Air, starring Mos Def and Donald Faison of Scrubs. The film is about some bumbling morons that attempt to sell a suitcase full of cocaine that accidentally lands in their idiotic hands. This movie has the misfortune of opening in a crowded field that will surely give it no chance to succeed at the box office. In a less competitive weekend, Air might have found its way to $6M-$7M, but this weekend most anyone that can pee standing up will be following the adventures of Spock or Wolverine. Next Day Air will collect about $2.5M this weekend and may find life as a cult comedy on DVD and cable.

Among holdovers, last week’s champ X-Men Origins: Wolverine is set for a big fall from its staggering $85M opening. Big event movies generally take a big hit in their second outings; Spider-Man 3 dropped a sharp 62%, Iron Man eased off roughly 50%, The Dark Knight fell 53% and X-Men: The Last Stand plummeted 67%. Iron Man and The Dark Knight both had critical support behind them, something Wolverine does not, so it should follow suit with X-Men 3. Look for Wolverine to drop 66%, stabbing its way to another $28.9M and bringing its total after 10 days to about $130M. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, Matthew McConaughey’s latest romantic comedy, opened below most industry expectations last weekend but should have a decent hold at the box office on its second date. I expect Ghosts to drop about 40% to collect another $9.2M. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.