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May 14

Written by: Bill Bonfanti
5/14/2009 2:16 PM 

This weekend at multiplexes, audiences are offered only one new choice, Angels & Demons, the sequel to 2006’s smash hit, The Da Vinci Code. Will audiences rush out to see a sequel to the critically maligned original? We’ll have to wait and see. The real question this weekend is how high the U.S.S. Enterprise can fly after last weekend’s terrific $76.5M take? Let’s take a look.
The Da Vinci Code, based on the best-selling novel by Dan Brown, opened to a whopping $77M back in 2006 and went on to gross $217M by the end of its theatrical run. Great numbers, but even more impressive was its worldwide take of $753M. The box office for this film was largely driven by a controversy with the Catholic church (much like The Passion of the Christ), the star power of Tom Hanks and director Ron Howard and of course the wildly popular novel. Unfortunately the movie, despite what box office receipts say, wasn’t very well received. Critics destroyed it and most of the audience (myself included) was disappointed. So the question becomes, despite being a hit at the box office, was anyone really clamoring for a sequel? Clearly based on the performance of The Da Vinci Code, greenlighting a sequel was a no brainer, but there is no chance of Angels & Demons making as much money. First, there is no real controversy this time around and this will eat in to its money making potential. Second, like I said earlier, audiences weren’t all that thrilled with Da Vinci and will likely not want to be burned again. Angels will also play better with older audiences and they generally don’t rush out to see a film on its opening weekend. Nonetheless, Angels & Demons does have a few things going for it. Tom Hanks no longer sports a mullet. The reviews, although mixed, are much better than those for Code and of course, Angels & Demons is also based on a best- selling novel by Dan Brown, albeit the novel was a prequel, not a sequel like the film. I would expect Angels & Demons to open to about 40% less than the last film, grossing about $45M this weekend.
After warping to the speed of about $80M during its first voyage at theatres, expect Star Trek to continue beaming up the box office gold as it flies into its second weekend. The reviews and the word of mouth have been spectacular so you can expect Star Trek to bring in plenty of new Star Fleet cadets and to live long and prosper at the box office. Not to mention all of the repeat viewers who will surely be out in droves this weekend as well. Kirk and Spock have continued to entertain audiences throughout the week, grossing $7.5M on Monday and another $6.5M on Tuesday, much the same way Iron Man performed last summer. The Robert Downey Jr. superhero flick dropped only 48% its second weekend and I expect the crew of the Enterprise to enjoy the same success. Star Trek should slip about 45% to gross another $41.3M this weekend, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if it were to make more.
After a terrific first weekend, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, crumbled 69%, but should stabilize a bit this weekend. Look for the hairy mutant to drop about 50% to collect another $13.2M. Matthew McConaughey’s latest rom-com, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, held up real well last weekend and should continue to do the same. Look for Ghosts to ease off another 35% and add another $6.6M to its total. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.
RANK
TITLE
BILL’S PREDICTION
1
Angels & Demons
$45M
2
Star Trek
$41.3M -45%
3
X-Men Origins: Wolverine
$13.2M -50%
4
Ghosts of Girlfriends Past
$6.6M -35%
5
Obsessed
$3.9M -40%
6
17 Again
$3M -30%
7
The Soloist
$2.5M -35%
8
Monsters vs. Aliens
$2.3M -30%
9
Next Day Air
$2.1M -50%
10
Earth
$1.7M -35%

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