The first Night at the Museum opened to $42.2M over a 4 day holiday frame during the winter of 2006 and went on to become a big word of mouth hit, eventually grossing $250M. Battle of the Smithsonian should have no trouble opening higher than the first movie; the question is how high? Generally sequels to a hit movie will open bigger than the original and this is especially true with family films. Here are some examples.

Shrek – 2001 - $42M opening
Shrek 2 – 2004 - $108M opening

Toy Story – 1995 - $29.1M
Toy Story 2 – 1999 - $57.4M opening

Madagascar – 2005 - $47.2M opening
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa – 2008 – $63.1M opening

Even though the films listed above are animated, I feel like they are a fair comparison to Museum because they are all family films. As you can see, each of the sequels opened way higher than the originals, with Shrek 2 and Toy Story 2 basically doubling the originals and Escape 2 Africa outperforming the original by 25%. Both Toy Story and Shrek were surprise hits much like Night at the Museum so I believe Smithsonian can up the take of the original by about 40%. The marketing campaign has been superb with various commercials showing funny moments from the film and there is much to be said about a cameo from Darth Vader. I would look for Battle of the Smithsonian to make about $70M over the 4 day holiday weekend.

The blockbuster, action flick of the week is Terminator Salvation, the 4^th film in the franchise, starring last summer’s box office king, Christian Bale. This is the first Terminator that doesn’t star Arnold Schwarzenegger and although he is sorely missed (read my review); it shouldn’t really affect the box office potential. Salvation opens on Thursday, enjoying a day head start on the Memorial Day weekend traffic. Reviews have been pretty bad and this film really has no chance of bringing in women or a new audience unfamiliar with the property.   The last film in the series, 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, got a jump start on the weekend also, opening on the Tuesday leading into July 4^th weekend. T3 pulled in $72M over its 6 day opening and I believe Salvation will play out the same way. Terminator Salvation will probably bring in about $15M on Thursday and about $55M over the 4 day frame, for a grand total of $70M over 5 days.

The final new film of the weekend is the comedy spoof, Dance Flick, brought to you by the new generation of the Wayans family. The film stars Damon Wayans Jr. and is directed by his cousin Damien Dante Wayans. You have to love nepotism. Dance Flick is a spoof of hit dance movies like Step it Up. This is a tricky genre at the box office. For every hit like Scary Movie, there is a bomb like Superhero Movie. Of course, spoofs are in the genes of the Wayans family, so this one should be okay at the box office. Look for Dance Flick to boogie its way to about $14M over the long weekend.

Last week’s box office champ, Angels & Demons will drop about 44% over the 4 day span to collect another $26M. Star Trek had an amazing second weekend dropping only 43%. Despite competition from the new Terminator, Trek should still continue to move at warp speed, slipping a scant 30% for the frame and beaming up another $30.1M. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.