Pixar’s latest Up, is about an old, lonely widower who flies around the world in his house looking for the adventure of a lifetime. He is joined by a young boy and a talking dog on his quest as well. I’m sure like every other Pixar movie, Up is very good, but I just don’t see it having the appeal of past hits like WALL-E and Finding Nemo. Those films had characters that the target audience of kids could get excited about, but could they really be excited about a movie about a grumpy old man? I don’t think so. I can tell you that both of my kids (always a good indicator) have no interest at all and it isn’t just because of the old man. They think the premise of a house floating away on balloons is silly (not in a good way) and they also think the young boy in the movie seems annoying.   This leaves a talking dog to attract their attention and after a year filled with Bolt, Hotel for Dogs and Beverly Hill Chihuahua, I don’t think that is much help at all. Don’t get me wrong. Up will still perform just fine at the box office based on the strength of the Pixar brand, it just won’t do as well as their other hit movies. Take a look at how some of them performed.

WALL-E – 2008 - $63M opening $223.8M total
Ratatouille – 2007 - $47M opening $206.4M total
Cars – 2006 - $60.1M opening $244M total
The Incredibles -  2004 - $70.4M opening $261.4M total
Finding Nemo -  2003 - $70.2M opening $339M total

As you can see, the movies that featured main characters that were either cute fish, superheroes, talking cars or a cute robot performed better than Ratatouille, a high concept film about a rat who longs to be a chef. I believe Up will travel along the same trajectory as Ratatouille. Up also has to contend with direct competition from juggernaut family film, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, entering its second weekend. Based on all of these things, I believe Up can fly to about a $52M debut. However, Up does have one thing going for it that the other Pixar films didn’t; Up is being shown in 3-D at higher ticket prices. With higher ticket prices for 3-D viewings factored in, I believe Up will float away with $62M this weekend.

Director Sam Raimi, most known for the Spider-Man trilogy, returns to his Evil Dead horror roots with Drag Me to Hell. Hell is about a young woman who turns down an old woman for a bank loan and is subsequently cursed by her and forced to fight off demons trying to… drag her to hell. Raimi is a great filmmaker who has many fans drooling over the prospect of a new fright flick directed by him after a decade of films about the human web-slinger. Horror films have opened really well this year and Hell should be no different. Check out how some recent horror films have opened.

The Unborn - $19.8M opening
My Bloody Valentine - $21.2M
Friday the 13^th - $40.6M opening
The Last House on the Left - $14.1M
The Haunting in Connecticut - $23M

As indicated above there is quite a big audience for these films and they tend to come out in force on opening weekends. The 5 films above were all released between January and March of this year, so horror fans have had 2 months to get their appetites up for a new movie. Hell will capitalize on this hunger. Unlike most horror movies, Drag Me to Hell has been receiving really great reviews from critics, and this can only help at the box office. I expect Drag Me to Hell to scare up $20M this weekend.

Among holdovers, #1 champ, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian is in for some competition from Up, but should hold up pretty well due to all of the families who missed it last weekend because of holiday barbeques and parties. Smithsonian should drop about 50% and collect another $26.7M. Terminator Salvation was terminated at the box office last weekend grossing just $65.3M over its 5 day debut. The audience for an action, blockbuster sequel is generally front loaded and therefore it is time to say hasta la vista, baby to Salvation as it plummets about 62% to gross another $16.2M. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.