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Jun 12

Written by: Bill Bonfanti
6/12/2009 3:50 PM 

This weekend at the box office 2 new films will be unleashed on audiences; the remake of the 1974 classic, The Taking of Pelham 123 and Eddie Murphy’s latest foray into kiddie comedy, Imagine That. Eddie will be lucky if he makes the top 5 this weekend, but it is going to be a tight 3 way race for the top spot as Pelham 123 takes on Up and The Hangover. Which one will be #1? Let’s take a look.
Director Tony Scott brings us The Taking of Pelham 123 with John Travolta stepping in as the villain and Denzel Washington playing the hero in this updated version of the 70’s classic. This is Scott’s fourth time working with Washington and they have had much box office success together in the past. Take a look.
Déjà Vu – 2006 - $20.6M opening $64M total
Man on Fire – 2004 - $22.8M opening $77.9M total
Crimson Tide – 1995 - $18.6M opening $91.4M total
As you can see, each of those films performed well and I think with Travolta co-starring, Pelham 123 will open higher. Washington scored his best weekend opening in 2007, starring opposite Russell Crowe in American Gangster ($43.6M) and this current pairing with Travolta will follow suit and be one of Washington’s biggest openings. Gangster had 2 things going for it that Pelham does not however. Pelham is opening in a more crowded summer field whereas Gangster opened in the less competitive month of November. Gangster also had better feedback from critics and the reviews for Pelham 123 have been mixed at best. I expect The Taking of Pelham 123 to speed away with $28M this weekend, not enough to take the top spot for the frame.
Eddie Murphy’s latest kid flick, Imagine That, is about a single father who is too busy at work to spend time with his daughter; that is until her imaginary friends start giving him valuable financial tips. Taking the Shrek movies out of the equation, Murphy is about as hit or miss as you can be in the kiddie film genre. Take a look at some of his more recent attempts to lure family audiences.
Meet Dave – 2008 - $5.3M opening $11.8M total
The Haunted Mansion – 2003 - $24.3M opening $75.8M total
Daddy Day Care – 2003 - $27.6M opening $104.1M total
The Adventures of Pluto Nash - $2.2M opening $4.4M total
There truly is no rhyme or reason to Murphy’s performance at the box office. It has nothing to do with reviews as all of the films listed above were panned by critics. Imagine That is really unlike his other family films in that the other movies were bigger, special effects driven films (with the exception of Day Care) that could appeal to the whole family.  Imagine is a much smaller film that will really only appeal to moms and their young daughters. Brought to you by Nickelodeon, Imagine That seems like a made for TV movie that happened to secure Eddie Murphy in the lead and was forced to jump on to the big screen to capitalize on his star power. That being said, I don’t think Imagine will be a box office disaster like Pluto Nash or Dave, but it certainly isn’t a big hit. I imagine that Imagine That will open quietly with about $7M.
Among holdovers, The Hangover has been raking it in during the week, pulling in another $26M or so over the Monday to Thursday period. Those numbers are very impressive for a comedy and guarantee that The Hangover will have another stellar weekend. Look for it to drop a slim 30% and to gross another $31.5M, bringing its total to just over $100M after just 10 days in release. Pixar’s Up has been flying high and will continue to soar in its third outing. I expect a reasonable fall of 32% to gross another $30M to fall in second place for the weekend. To see the rest of my box office predictions, check out the chart below.
RANK
TITLE
BILL’S PREDICTION
1
The Hangover
$31.5M -30%
2
Up
$30M-32%
3
The Taking of Pelham 123
$28M
4
Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian
$9.1M -38%
5
Land of the Lost
$8.9M -53%
6
Imagine That
$7M
7
Star Trek
$5.4M -35%
8
Terminator Salvation
$4.3M -48%
9
Angels & Demons
$3.6M -45%
10
Drag Me to Hell
$3.5M -50%

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