This weekend moviegoers are offered 2 new choices; romantic comedy, The Proposal starring Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds and prehistoric stoner age comedy, Year One starring Jack Black and Michael Cera. Both new movies have their work cut out for them as they challenge current box office king, The Hangover, for the title of #1 comedy in America. Can either of these new laughers cure audience’s hangover? Let’s take a look.
Sandra Bullock returns to her bread and butter, romantic comedy roots after a 7 year hiatus in The Proposal, co-starring Ryan Reynolds. Bullock plays a successful book editor from Canada who forces her assistant (Reynolds) to marry her when her visa expires. Bullock’s movies (regardless of genre) tend to open in the mid-teens. Here are a couple of examples.
Premonition – 2007 - $17.6M
The Lake House – 2006 - $13.6M
Two Weeks Notice – 2002 - $14.3M
Forces of Nature – 1999 - $13.5M
Hope Floats – 1998 - $14.2M
The marketplace is in need of a new date movie. The last one, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past, opened in early May, so the timing for The Proposal is perfect and should help the former Miss Congeniality to secure the best opening of her career. Reviews have been mixed, but that never really affects any of Bullocks opening. I would expect The Proposal to walk down the aisle with about $26M this weekend.
Jack Black and Michael Cera star in Year One as two bumbling cavemen who leave their village to explore the prehistoric world and run into the likes of Cain and Abel and other biblical heroes. Year One is more silly comedy than biting satire and is aimed squarely at teenagers and young adults looking for mindless comedy. Year One has a tough road in front of it with multiplexes filled to the brim with comedies. The Hangover is still going strong and even box office bomb, Land of the Lost entering its third weekend will provide some competition. I would expect Year One to unearth about $20M this weekend.
Among holdovers, The Hangover has continued to dominate at the box office during the week, pulling in about $5.5M per day. Despite 2 new comedies opening, I would expect another slim decline of about 25% to pull in another $24.6M, not enough to take the #1 spot for the third weekend in a row. This will bring The Hangover to just shy of $150M after only 17 days of release. With no new competition for family audiences, Pixar’s Up should continue to soar at the box office. Look for a small dip of 32% in its fourth voyage for a weekend take of $20.9M. Last week’s box office failure, Imagine That, should drop about 52% to collect $2.7M, bringing its 10 day total to a paltry $11M. To see the rest of my predictions for this weekend, check out the chart below.
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RANK
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TITLE
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BILL’S PREDICTION
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1
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The Proposal
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$26M
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2
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The Hangover
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$24.6M -25%
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3
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Up
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$20.9M -32%
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|
4
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Year One
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$20M
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5
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The Taking of Pelham 123
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$12.4M -47%
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6
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Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian
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$6.7M -30%
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7
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Land of the Lost
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$4M -55%
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8
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Star Trek
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$3.8M -30%
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|
9
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Terminator Salvation
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$2.8M -42%
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10
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Imagine That
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$2.7M -52%
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