Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen has already started its siege of the box office, collecting an estimated $60M on its Wednesday opening (including $16M from Tuesday midnight showings). This now stands as the second biggest opening day in history, behind only last years The Dark Knight ($67.2M). It is also now the biggest Wednesday bow in history, destroying the previous record of $44.2M set by Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix in July of 2007. Harry will get a chance to take the record back on Wednesday, July 15^th when the latest installment, The Half-Blood Prince, opens in theatres. However, it is doubtful that the young wizard will be able to conjure up enough magic to topple the new record set by the Autobots and Decepticons.

Revenge of the Fallen also now stands as the 3^rd biggest midnight opening of all time behind The Dark Knight ($18.5M) and Star Wars Episode III ($16.9M). The next record it will take on is best Wednesday to Sunday opening. The previous record of $152.4M was set by Spider-Man 2 in July of 2004 and Fallen should surpass that easily. Thursday’s gross should drop about 55% to bring in another $27.5M giving Transformers a hefty $87.5M head start on the weekend box office. 

Reviews have been fairly negative but should really have no impact at all as far as the first weekend goes as the transforming robots are bullet proof. If word of mouth is bad that could eat in to some potential box office in the weeks ahead, but this movie is the biggest hit of the year hands down. If the fairly dreadful Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest can gross $423M, Revenge of the Fallen should be just fine. Look for Transformers to collect about $100M over the Friday to Sunday span and end the weekend with a rocking 5 day haul of $188M.

The only other wide release this weekend is the Cameron Diaz cry fest, My Sister’s Keeper. The film, based on the best-selling novel, is about a little girl who is dying from leukemia. I don’t know about you, but I’d rather go get my chest waxed than watch a movie about a dying kid and I’m pretty hairy. I can’t imagine that in these trying economic times that anyone would want to go see a movie that will make them more depressed than they already are. That being said, my guess is that My Sister’s Keeper will have a quiet debut with about $10M.

Among holdovers, Sandra Bullock’s return to rom-com, The Proposal, should hold up fairly well after a superb opening weekend take of $33.6M. Look for The Proposal to drop about 45% to collect another $18.5M in wedding gifts. Comedy powerhouse, The Hangover, should still continue to perform well in its fourth frame. Look for a drop of about 35% to collect another $17.4M. Year One will lose much of its target audience of young men to battling robots this weekend, so look for a steep decline of about 65% to earn the prehistoric laugher another $6.8M. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.