Harry Potter is back once again to enchant audiences and make some magic at the box office. The sixth entry in the popular series, The Half-Blood Prince opened on Wednesday and is already soaring at the box office. Will Potter and friends be able to top the 5 day launch of Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($200.1M)? Let’s take a look.
The Half-Blood Prince grossed an estimated $58.4M on its opening day Wednesday (including Tuesday midnight showings) and is now the 4th biggest opening day in history behind The Dark Knight ($67.2M), Transformers 2 ($62M) and Spider-Man 3 ($59.8M). The new Potter film didn’t break the opening day record, however, it did break the record for biggest midnight gross.
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - $22.2M
The Dark Knight - $18.5M
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $16M
The midnight gross is astounding, but even more so when you look at the performance of the last film, The Order of the Phoenix, which opened on a Wednesday as well, 2 years ago. Phoenix grossed $12M from late showings Tuesday night for an opening day of $44.2M. It fell dramatically Thursday (as I’m sure Prince will also) and went on to conjure up $77.1M over the weekend for a powerful $139.7M 5 day debut. The Half-Blood Prince looks to surpass that figure by quite a bit.
The Harry Potter franchise has performed remarkably well over the last 8 years and Prince may wind up being the highest grossing entry so far. Here is a look at the total grosses for the last 5 films.
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone – 2001 – $317.6M
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets – 2002 - $262M
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – 2004 - $249.5M
Harry Potter and The Goblet of Fire – 2005 - $290M
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix – 2007 - $292M
Thursday should see a steep decline of about 58%, giving Harry another $24.5M and a total of $83M heading into the weekend. Potter should make about $85M over the 3 day span for a massive 5 day total of $168M.
Among holdovers, Sacha Baron Cohen’s Bruno is in for a dramatic fall after an underperforming opening weekend. The film will drop 70% and dance away with $9.2M for the frame. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs should lose some of its audience to the boy wizard and will drop about 35% to thaw out another $17.9M from the box office. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.
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RANK
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TITLE
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BILL’S PREDICTION
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1
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Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
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$85M
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2
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Ice Age: Rise of the Dinosaurs
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$17.9M -35%
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3
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Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
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$13.3M -45%
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4
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Bruno
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$9.2M -70%
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5
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Public Enemies
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$7.6M -45%
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6
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The Proposal
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$7.4M -30%
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7
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The Hangover
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$7M -30%
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8
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Up
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$2.8M -40%
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9
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My Sister’s Keeper
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$2.6M -40%
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10
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I Love You, Beth Cooper
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$2.2M -55%
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