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Jul
24
Written by:
Bill Bonfanti
7/24/2009 7:24 PM

This weekend audiences are offered 3 new films at multiplexes; 3-D Disney flick, G-Force, romantic comedy, The Ugly Truth and creepy horror thriller, Orphan. None of them will probably be strong enough to remove the boy wizard, Harry Potter out of the #1 spot, but it is going to be quite a tight race for second place. Let’s take a look.
3-D animated film, G-Force, brought to you by Disney and producer Jerry Bruckheimer, is about guinea pigs who are trained to be spies. The movie looks cute and funny and using the indicator that I always use for kids movies, my own kids, I’m guessing G-Force will be a hit. The movie features the vocal talents of Nicolas Cage, Sam Rockwell and Tracy Morgan among others, but in a movie like this, the stars aren’t really important. The only thing working against the guinea pig spies is that the movie is not based on a hit property and that they are facing competition from Harry Potter and Ice Age. Nonetheless, G-Force has the power of the Disney name behind it and due to a great marketing campaign, awareness is very high. Disney has had success with other talking animal flicks, most recently Beverly Hills Chihuahua, which opened to $29.3M this past October and went on to collect $94.5M. Chihuahua didn’t have the same level of competition that G-Force does, but the furry guys also have the benefit of higher ticket prices from 3-D showings. Look for G-Force to open with about $31M.
New romantic comedy, The Ugly Truth, starring Gerard Butler and Katherine Heigl, has been receiving some ugly reviews and that will more than likely hurt its box office chances. Nonetheless, audiences have proven they are in the mood for rom-com’s with the runaway success of last month’s The Proposal, so the first weekend take should still be pretty good. The marketing has been strong and although the movie may not be reviewing well, the trailer is perfect. The box office for The Ugly Truth will mostly be driven by Heigl’s star power, who has proven herself with both Knocked Up ($30.7M opening) and 27 Dresses ($23M opening). I would expect Truth to fall somewhere in the middle of those 2 films. Look for The Ugly Truth to collect about $28M this weekend.
The final new release of the weekend, horror film Orphan, is about a family who adopts a seemingly normal kid who turns out to be a murdering psychopath. The film is light on star power but is opening at a good time as there hasn’t been a new horror film since May’s Drag Me to Hell. Of course, Orphan will also have to deal with major competition from all the big summer releases that are currently occupying theatres. Reviews have been fairly bad but that shouldn’t matter all that much to fans of the genre. Look for Orphan to take home about $12M this weekend.
This brings us to last week’s champ, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. The boy wizard should have no trouble holding on to the top spot after a brilliant 5 day launch last weekend. Half-Blood Prince has been playing about the same as the last film in the series, The Order of the Phoenix and will probably continue to do so this weekend. Like its predecessor, Prince should drop a reasonable 58% this weekend to conjure up another $32.7M. This will bring Potter’s total to a massive $220M after 12 days. To see the rest of my predictions for this box office weekend, check out the chart below.
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RANK
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TITLE
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BILL’S PREDICTION
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1
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Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
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$32.7M -58%
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2
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G-Force
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$31M
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3
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The Ugly Truth
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$28M
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4
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Orphan
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$12M
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5
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Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
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$9.1M -48%
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6
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Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
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$7.8M -43%
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7
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The Hangover
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$5.7M -30%
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8
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The Proposal
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$5M -40%
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9
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Public Enemies
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$4.2M -45%
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10
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Bruno
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$3.3M -60%
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