Disney’s 3-D adventure film, G-Force, defied industry expectations and stole the top spot from Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. The talking guinea pigs had a spectacular debut, collecting $32.2M, very close to my $31M forecast. Reviews weren’t very good but with Ice Age 3 beginning to thaw out and Up floating out of theatres, families decided to give the furry creatures a chance. The Disney brand name and higher ticket prices for 3-D venues also helped the cause. Look for G-Force to make it to about $90M by the end of its mission.

Opening strong in 3^rd place, despite terrible reviews, was The Ugly Truth starring Katherine Heigl and Gerard Butler with $27M, very close to my $28M prediction. This is Heigl’s third time headlining a rom-com and she has now cemented herself as one of Hollywood’s bankable leading ladies. Truth’s opening fell right in the middle of her last 2 films, 2008’s 27 Dresses ($23M) and 2007’s Knocked Up ($30.7M). Romantic comedies have been playing well this summer as evidenced by The Proposal’s towering $140.1M total and The Ugly Truth should capitalize on this trend. Look for the film to finish in the $100M range.

The latest horror film, Orphan, failed to excite viewers and opened to a not so great $12.8M, right in line with my $12M call. The reviews have been fairly mixed for the story of a family that adopts a nine year old little girl who turns out to be a psychotic nut-bag. You can read my review here. Moving forward, Orphan will quickly be abandoned by audiences and may find its way to about $30M.

Among holdovers, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince fell to second place in its second weekend, dropping 62% to conjure up another $30M in wizard gold at the box office. This was a bigger fall than I expected (although not by much); I thought it would perform exactly like the last film, The Order of the Phoenix, and drop 58%. Nonetheless, Half-Blood Prince should reach $300M and becomes one of the highest grossing films in the series. To see the gross of each of the prior Potter films, click here. To see how the rest of my predictions fared, check out the chart below. 

Come back Thursday to check out my predictions for the dream team collaboration of Judd Apatow and Adam Sandler in Funny People and yet another kid flick, Aliens in the Attic.

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