The Rise of Cobra is a tough one to predict for several reasons. First, on a more personal note, I’ve been anxiously waiting for 2 years to go see this with my son (I’m a fanboy… what can I say?) and that being said, I want G.I. Joe to kick major ass at the box office. Because of that excitement, my prediction for this film may be way wrong. Whenever I listen to my heart instead of my head, my forecasts tend to suffer, but it is what it is. As they say, the heart wants what the heart wants.

Joe has been plagued with bad buzz for awhile now and this could really put a dent in its potential gross. Rumors have abounded that Joe received the worst scores in Paramount’s history after a test screening and subsequently, director Stephen Sommers was fired from the film. The rumors have since been debunked but unfortunately the damage may have already been done. Paramount has also declined to screen the film for critics in time for its release and this could be a potentially dangerous move. Paramount has shown the film to a couple of internet based critics such as Harry Knowles and so far the response has been overwhelmingly good. Apparently, Paramount felt that after Transformers 2 took a critical drubbing and still was a huge success the reviews for G.I. Joe wouldn’t matter anyway. I believe this logic is somewhat flawed. If they really feel the film is critic proof, then why not let it be reviewed in time for its release? I think the potential audience for this film would rather see bad reviews versus no reviews at all. When a film isn’t reviewed, the perception is that it is awful and it usually is.

All of the negative press aside, G.I. Joe is a popular property and fans are going to rush out to see it one way or another.  Joe easily has as big a fan base as Transformers did before it got the big screen treatment and if the success of that film is any indicator, The Rise of Cobra should do quite well. Transformers had a high curiosity factor going for it that Joe doesn’t so it won’t perform as well as the robot flick did in its debut frame. This is the last big summer movie and there really is no competition for the action audience at this point. In fact the only big movie that Joe has to contend with is Harry Potter and that film is entering its fourth frame. I think G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra will debut with $58M and become the surprise hit of the summer. Check out a cool featurette about the making of Joe here.

Meryl Streep and Amy Adams star in Julie & Julia based on the best-selling novel of the same name. Directed by Nora Ephron, the film is about a woman who decides to complete an entire Julia Child cookbook in a year. Having arguably the best actress of all time (Streep) star in a film with one of the best up and coming actresses (Adams) is a great idea, but unfortunately, the two dynamos never share a scene together. The film is getting decent reviews and should fare well as there aren’t really any other movies out that are geared towards women. Look for Julie & Julia to cook up about $18M this weekend.

The final new release is horror film A Perfect Getaway starring Steve Zahn and Milla Jovovich as a couple on their honeymoon who run into some disturbed strangers. There have been plenty of horror movies this year and I believe they are at their saturation point. Look for A Perfect Getaway to gross about $6M this weekend and for the honeymoon to be cut short soon afterwards.

Among holdovers, Funny People (read my review here) starring Adam Sandler opened to a disappointing $22.7M last week and will probably be in for a tumble this weekend. Look for Funny People to collect about $9.1M in its second frame. The only other new releases last weekend Aliens in the Attic will be cut in half to make about $4.1M and The Collector will make zero impact at the box office and fall outside of the top 10. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.