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Aug
20
Written by:
Bill Bonfanti
8/20/2009 1:01 PM
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST 21-23
This weekend there are 3 new movies in wide release; Quentin Tarantino’s Inglorious Basterds, Shorts from Robert Rodriguez and Post Grad starring Alexis Bledel. It’s no mystery that Tarantino’s WW II epic will nab the top spot, but will the star power of Brad Pitt help Basterds achieve Quentin’s biggest opening yet? Let’s take a look. Tarantino has a big fan base, but his films have never really set the box office on fire. Inglorious Basterds may prove to be different for 2 reasons; box office draw Brad Pitt is the star and it has been over 5 years since audiences have had the pure Tarantino experience. True, Grindhouse featuring Tarantino’s Death Proof came out 2 years ago, but it was more of a cinematical experiment with friend Robert Rodriguez (director of this weekend’s Shorts). Basterds seems more like a return to his Pulp Fiction glory days. Take a look at how Quentin’s films have performed at the box office.
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RANK
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RELEASE DATE
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TITLE
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OPENING WEEKEND
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TOTAL GROSS
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1
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10/14/94
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Pulp Fiction
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$9.3M
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$107.9M
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2
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10/10/03
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Kill Bill Volume 1
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$22.1M
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$70.1M
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3
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4/16/04
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Kill Bill Volume 2
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$25.1M
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$66.2M
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4
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12/25/97
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Jackie Brown
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$9.3M
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$39.7M
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5
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4/6/07
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Grindhouse
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$11.6M
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$25M
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6
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10/23/92
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Reservoir Dogs
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$147,839
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$2.8M
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Kill Bill Volume 2 was his biggest opening to date and I think Basterds will surpass that by a couple of million. The reviews have been pretty stellar so far and the storyline should appeal to young men. Who doesn’t want to see Jewish-American soldiers killing Nazi’s in creative, imaginative ways? Look for Inglorious Basterds to collect about $32M Nazi scalps this weekend.
Robert Rodriguez, Tarantino’s frequent collaborator, releases his latest family flick, Shorts, this weekend. Shorts is about a young boy’s discovery of a colorful, wish granting rock that causes chaos in the suburban town of Black Falls when jealous kids and scheming adults alike set out to get their hands on it. This is his 5th film catering to the family audience, but it won’t be as popular as his Spy Kids series. Take a look at how his family friendly films have performed at the box office.
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RANK
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RELEASE DATE
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TITLE
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OPENING WEEKEND
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TOTAL GROSS
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1
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3/30/01
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Spy Kids
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$26.5M
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$112.7M
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2
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7/25/03
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Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
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$33.4M
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$111.8M
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3
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8/7/02
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Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams
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$16.7M
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$85.8M
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4
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6/10/05
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The Adventures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl
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$12.6M
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$39.2M
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The Spy Kids franchise performed quite well, but I think Shorts will perform closer to Sharkboy and Lavagirl, probably worse because in some parts of the country, school is back in session. Look for Shorts to collect about $6.5M this weekend.
The only other wide release this weekend is Post Grad starring Alexis Bledel and Michael Keaton. Bledel plays Ryden Malby, who graduates from college and is forced to move back into her childhood home with her eccentric family while she attempts to find a job, the right guy, and just a hint of where her life is headed. The marketing hasn’t been all that strong and reviews have been dismal. Expect Post Grad to debut somewhere at the bottom of the top 10 with about $3M.
Among holdovers, last weekend’s champ, District 9, has been getting great word of mouth from audiences, but a decent drop is in store because this certainly isn’t a film for everyone (read my review here). Look for D9 to drop about 50% to collect another $18.7M, bringing its total to about $72M after 10 days. The Time Traveler’s Wife got off to a solid start last weekend and should drop a standard 45% to walk away with another $10.2M for the frame. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. Make sure and check back Monday for this weekend’s box office results and see if my predictions were accurate.
Follow me on Twitter for box office updates.
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RANK
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TITLE
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BILL’S PREDICTION
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1
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Inglorious Basterds
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$32M
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2
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District 9
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$18.7M -50%
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3
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G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra
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$11.8M -47%
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4
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The Time Traveler’s Wife
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$10.2M -45%
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5
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Julie & Julia
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$7.8M -35%
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6
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Shorts
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$6.5M
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7
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G-Force
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$4.7M -33%
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8
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Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
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9
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Post Grad
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$3M
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10
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The Ugly Truth
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$2.9M -35%
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