Let me start by saying that I hate predicting Tyler Perry’s movies. I’ve been wrong every time, but I’ll do my best. Let’s start with the obvious. Based on his track record at the box office, it is no brainer that I Can Do Bad All By Myself will be #1 for the weekend. The question is how much will it make? Based on his past films, Bad could open anywhere from $10M to $40M. Take a look at how Perry’s other films have fared on opening weekend.

 

Perry’s most successful films are the ones that feature his breakout character Madea or more accurately feature Madea in the title. Bad does feature the popular character and this will help it become one of Tyler’s best openings. As always, Perry’s fanbase of African-American women will be out in force, especially since it has been months since a film with a predominately black cast has been in theatres.  I Can Do Bad All By Myself won’t fly as high as either of the Madea flicks, but should wind up being the third best opening of Perry’s career. Look for Bad to open at the top of the charts with about $25M.

Whiteout, finds Kate Beckinsale playing a U.S. Marshall who is sent to Antarctica to investigate a homicide that quickly turns into a game of cat and mouse between her and the killer. The reviews have been fairly dreadful and the film hasn’t been given a huge marketing push, so expect audiences to give Whiteout the cold shoulder. Beckinsale has achieved box office success in horror fantasy films such as the Underworld series (1 and 2) and Van Helsing but expect her foray into the world of thrillers to be met with an icy reception. Whiteout should manage to thaw out about $7M this weekend.

Produced by Tim Burton, animated adventure film, 9, got off to a great start this Wednesday, 9/9/09 (talk about awesome release date synergy), opening to $3.1M. This was an amazing feat when you consider that the target audience of teenage boys are all back in school. The problem that 9 has this weekend is its PG-13 rating. Parents won’t be lining up for this one if they think it is too mature for their family. The film looks to be visually captivating and the reviews have been decent, so 9 does have a chance of bringing in the young adult crowd. Look for 9 to gross about $11M this weekend and $16M over the 5 day span.

The last new film of the weekend is yet another horror film, Sorority Row. The R rated slasher flick offers fans of the genre the usual mix of bloody mayhem and gratuitous nudity and should pull in its core audience. The problem is that Row looks really cheesy, is coming out on the heels of The Final Destination and Halloween 2 and it also has no gimmick such as 3-D to lure in viewers who are not fans of slasher flicks.   Look for Sorority Row to bleed $5M in its debut frame.

To see the rest of my predictions for this box office weekend, check out the chart below. Come back Monday for the results and remember to follow me on Twitter for updates throughout the weekend.