Will Zombieland be able to reverse the current trend of horror films fizzling at the box office? Yes, I believe it will. The trailer is great; highlighting both the humor and the action and that will be enough to separate it from all the horror losers of the last few weeks. A big part of the film’s success will be due to the inspired casting of Woody Harrelson as the ultimate zombie slayer. It is a perfect part for him and could be the best role of his career so far. It’s the kind of breakthrough part that every actor waits for. The reviews have been overwhelmingly positive so far and Sony has done a great job creating awareness of the film. That being said, Zombieland does have its limitations as far as its box office chances. First the R rating will hurt a bit. It is a horror movie, so those not into blood and gore will have no interest. It also does have the misfortune of opening on the heels of a crap load of fright flicks. The multiplexes have been littered with them. I think Zombieland will slaughter its way to about $24M this weekend. 

Drew Barrymore’s directorial debut, Whip It, starring Ellen Page is a sports comedy that takes place in the world of roller derby. The film previewed in about 500 theatres last Saturday night and reportedly most of the theatres were about 2/3^rd’s full. To me this isn’t a good sign. The audience for this film is limited to young women and there is no chance that any boys will be showing up for this one. It doesn’t have date night appeal like a romantic comedy and despite Whip It being about sports, roller derby isn’t going to qualify as one for most boys. Whip It will skate off with $5.5M this weekend.

Ricky Gervais is back with The Invention of Lying, a comedy that also stars Jennifer Garner and Rob Lowe. Lying is about a world where no one lies; in fact people don’t even know what a lie is. Gervais plays a down on his luck fellow who suddenly has the ability to fib and begins to lie about everything in order to reap the benefits. It’s a good premise, albeit a little too offbeat for mainstream audiences, much like Gervais himself. Gervais starred in a similarly high minded concept comedy last fall called Ghost Town. Ghost Town opened to about $5M and I’m sure Lying will perform almost exactly the same. Lying opens in 200 more theatres than Ghost Town so I think it will make a smidge more. Look for The Invention of Lying to con its way to about $7M. 

Now that I got those 3 movies out of the way, here’s where the predicting becomes interesting. Capitalism: A Love Story, Michael Moore’s latest documentary, opened in limited release last weekend to scorching results. Moore is a rock star among documentarians as his films always find an audience and this time will be no different. Look for Capitalism to rake in about $6M this weekend.

Now for some real fun. The rerelease of Toy Story 1 and 2 in 3-D is certainly a tough one to call. I can’t think of one single film to match up to this other than the rerelease of Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas, but I don’t even think that is a fair comparison. On the plus side, the Toy Story films are arguably the best animated kid flicks to be released in the last 20 years and they haven’t waned in popularity over the years. In fact I would say they have become more popular over time. I can tell you for sure that there is interest in seeing the 3-D double feature among kids 5 to 10 based on my own kids reactions (I already bought the tickets). That being said, will any young ones under the age of 5 be able to sit in theatres for 3 hours? Will any parents risk taking their toddlers to the movies for 3 hours? I think many of them will decide to skip it and choose to introduce their young ones to the films on DVD instead. There’s always next summer to take the kids to see Toy Story 3. The 3 hour running time will limit the amount of show times as does the amount of theatres equipped to show 3-D films. The double feature is also billed as a 2 week only event, so that may force parents to take their families this weekend, but realistically, I don’t think this is going to be much of a factor. There is also major competition from the hugely popular Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs (perhaps the best animated kids flick since Toy Story). Look for the Toy Story 3-D double feature to make about $13M this weekend.

Among holdovers, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs will continue to perform well this weekend, despite competition from Toy Story. The only black cloud for Meatballs is the loss of some of its 3-D venues to Toy Story. Look for Cloudy to ease off another 25% to collect another $18.9M. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for updates throughout the weekend.