The Saw franchise has dominated the weekend before Halloween every year, generally opening to $30M+. Take a look.

 

As you can see the series had its best opening with the third film and has seen moderate declines ever since. What is truly alarming is how far the box office total has dropped from Saw III to Saw V. This series is tired and with competition from Paranormal Activity, Saw VI will be the first one since the original to debut with less than $30M. Saw V also only had one other horror film to compete with in its debut weekend; Quarantine which was in its third weekend. In addition to Paranormal, Saw VI will lose a bit of its audience to The Stepfather, Zombieland and even Law Abiding Citizen which has been described by some critics as Saw meets Death Wish. Next year, Saw VII will be in 3-D, so that should help the flagging franchise. Look for Saw VI to bleed about $18M out of the box office.

Astro Boy, based on the popular Japanese character, blasts his way into theatres taking aim at young boys everywhere. An all star cast including Freddie Highmore, Nicolas Cage, Kristen Bell, Charlize Theron and Mr. Samuel L. Jackson lend their voices to the animated adventure, but this film will only be of interest to kids (mostly boys) under the age of 10 and a few diehard fans of the character. Astro Boy isn’t surrounded by much hype and doesn’t have the cache of being in 3-D or IMAX, but the trailer is great and the animation looks just as good as any other animated hit. I can tell you that my little guy is dying to see this and my 9 year old daughter has also expressed interest. There is some competition from Where the Wild Things Are, but I believe most parents have heard by now that Wild Things is a bit too wild for young children. Look for Astro Boy to rocket off with $7.5M this weekend.

Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant, based on the popular book series, will try to scare up some business from teenage boys and girls this weekend looking for a fright. The film centers on a teenage boy who accidentally gets involved in a centuries old war between two factions of vampires. The film does have a built in audience from the book series, but my feeling is that this film won’t appeal to anyone else. The reviews have been fairly dreadful and Vampire’s Assistant will also have to contend with Wild Things for its target audience. Look for The Vampire’s Assistant to debut below the top 5 with about $7M. 

Oscar winner Hillary Swank stars in Amelia, the true story of Amelia Earhart, the legendary aviatrix and American icon. The film also co-stars Ewan McGregor and Richard Gere and I guess it officially marks the beginning of awards season at multiplexes, although based on the reviews, Amelia won’t be receiving any love at the Oscars. The target audience (adults) will pay attention to the reviews which won’t bode well for the film. Launching in only 800 theatres, Amelia will be lucky to crack the top 10 this weekend with about $4M.

Among holdovers, Where the Wild Things will be in for a sharp decline this weekend. Word of mouth has been mixed and so has the response from critics (read my review here). Most of director Spike Jonze’s  fanbase has already shown up as have fans of the beloved children’s book. Look for Wild Things to drop 55% (large for a family film) and collect another $14.7M this weekend. Despite taking a beating from critics, Law Abiding Citizen was a surprise hit last weekend and will drop off about 48% to take in an additional $10.9M. Indie sensation, Paranormal Activity will expand its theatre count from 760 to about 2000 and will battle with Saw VI for the pre Halloween crown. Look for Activity to rise about 11% to scare up another $21.7M and bring its total to a staggering $60M+. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box updates throughout the weekend.