This Is It has been culled together from rehearsal footage of Jackson getting ready for his 50 sold out shows at London’s 02 Arena. The film is being billed as a two week only event but one would have to imagine that if the money is pouring in, MJ will be in theatres longer than that. The film has been making a great impact on ticket selling sites like Fandango and Movie Tickets.com for weeks now, outpacing early sales for Harry Potter 6 and Transformers 2. It has also been selling better than the Hannah Montana 3-D concert which was also billed as a two week only engagement and continued in theatres for many weeks after the initial period. Hannah Montana grossed a whopping $31.1M in only 683 theatres in its first weekend. 

Unfortunately, there are no other films other than Hannah Montana to compare Jacko’s film to, but there are quite a few differences. First and foremost, Hannah Montana was an actual concert and had the cache of being in 3-D which means higher ticket prices for every showing. This Is It will be on some IMAX screens, but overall, ticket prices will be normal. Montana debuted on fewer than 700 screens whereas Jackson’s film is a wide release opening in more than 3000 theatres. This should give the edge to Jackson, but in reality it doesn’t. It just means that fewer showings of This Is It will be sold out across the country in comparison to Hannah Montana selling out every show. Of course Jackson is a way bigger star than Miley Cyrus and appeals to a much broader audience than the Disney princess. Still, Montana was more of a concert experience than This Is It.

Jackson’s diehard fans will be out in force to catch a glimpse of what the enigmatic entertainer had in store for his sold out concerts, but will more casual fans rush to theatres? Although there has been an overload of fascination about the singer since his untimely death a few short months ago, I don’t believe that many of them will. The reviews have been mostly positive (read my review here) and because of that, some people will want to satisfy their curiosity whether they are a fan or not. 

Looking at the numbers, opening on a Wednesday outside of the summer season to the tune of $7.4M is still pretty impressive. Many industry insiders expected a stronger showing, but I think they were all carried away by the hype centering the film. A small dip of about 20-25% on Thursday seems about right and then Friday, the sales should jump up considerably. I would expect Friday to gross about $10M and drop quite a bit coming into Halloween Saturday. Halloween falling on a Saturday is never good for the box office with families otherwise engaged in trick or treating or parties and should impact This Is It quite a bit. Look for This Is It to collect about $22M this weekend. 

Among holdovers, Saw VI was murdered last weekend and will continue to disappoint this weekend. Look for Jigsaw and friends to fall about 65% to scare up a dismal $4.9M in its second frame. Last weekend’s champ, Paranormal Activity, will drop for the first time since its release after expanding to 2000 theatres last weekend and collecting $21.1M. Look for the supernatural indie thriller to ease off about 25% to collect another $15.8M. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box updates throughout the weekend.