This Is It grooved away with $21.3M this weekend, very close to my prediction of $22M. The films total after 5 days stands at $32.5M, a far cry from the $250M predicted by concert promoter AEG. Regardless of that ridiculous prediction, based on the way the film was tracking on movie ticket sites such as Fandango, it seemed like This Is It was on track for a $60M+ opening. It’s kind of bizarre if you ask me. It makes me think that perhaps it was all just marketing and that even the ticket sites were in on it. It just doesn’t add up otherwise. 

Anyway, conspiracy theories aside, the film opened to $7.4M on Wednesday (including Tuesday midnight) which was way lower than anticipated. Nonetheless, that is a very solid opening day for a mid-week debut outsider of the summer season. The reviews have been positive (read my review here) but much like a sequel, the box office take will be frontloaded. This Is It will finish its 2 week run in the $50M - $60M range, unless of course Sony decides to extend it. Even if they do choose to extend the run, they won’t bring in that many more box office dollars. Sony reportedly paid $60M for the rights to the film and although they will not be making any profit from the domestic run, internationally the film is performing better. The film has grossed $101M worldwide with 68% of that coming from foreign markets. 

At the end of the day when all of the hype is taken out of the equation, This Is It banked an impressive amount of money for either a documentary or a concert film (which it isn’t really).

Among holdovers, Paranormal Activity expanded yet again into 2404 theatres and continued to scare up some cash. The little indie film slipped a scant 22% in its sixth week of release to collect another $16.5M, slightly better than my $15.8M prediction. The films total now stands at a towering $84.8M and it should cross the $100M mark in the next two weekends. With Halloween now a memory, Activity will experience normal drops in the weeks ahead, probably in the vicinity of 50%.

Saw VI continued to stumble after its disastrous opening weekend take of $14.1M. The latest installment plummeted 61% over the Halloween frame to collect $5.6M, slightly better than my forecast for a 65% drop. The films total after ten days stands at $22.8M, a far cry from Saw V’s opening weekend take of $30M. The next part is being released in 3-D next year, but will that be enough to rescue this tired franchise? I doubt it. Jigsaw finally needs to be laid to rest… at least until someone revives the series twenty years from now. To see how the rest of the top 10 shaped up and how my other predictions for the weekend fared, check out the chart below.

Be sure to come back Thursday for my predictions for this weekend’s releases, Disney’s A Christmas Carol, The Men Who Stare at Goats, The Fourth Kind and The Box.

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