The box office kicks into high gear this weekend with four new releases hitting theatres after a relatively boring Halloween frame that saw just one new film open. Kicking off Christmastime in Hollywood, Disney’s 3-D reimagining of Charles Dickens classic A Christmas Carol is the widest release opening in more than 3500 screens (including IMAX) nationwide. Also opening, alien abduction, docuthriller, The Fourth Kind, which is supposedly based on true case studies, The Box from the offbeat director of Donnie Darko, Richard Kelly, and George Clooney stars in the first of three films he has coming out in the next month, The Men Who Stare at Goats. Will the King of Pop still be able to compete in such a crowded field of releases? Let’s take a look.
Director Robert Zemeckis directs a faithful adaption of Dickens’ A Christmas Carol employing the same motion capture animation that he used for 2004’s The Polar Express and 2007’s Beowulf. Jim Carrey handles most of the acting chores in the film playing Scrooge and all three ghosts. Carol officially launches the yuletide season in Hollywood and will of course win the box office crown by a large margin. Generally, X-Mas themed films do well and Carol will be no different. Take a look at some past performers.
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YEAR RELEASED
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TITLE
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OPENING WEEKEND
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TOTAL GROSS
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2002
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The Santa Clause 2
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$29.0M
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$139.2M
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2003
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Elf
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$31.1M
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$173.4M
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2004
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The Polar Express
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$23.3M
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$162.8M (not including rereleases)
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2006
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The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause
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$19.5M
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$84.5M
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2007
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Fred Claus
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$18.5M
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$72M
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2008
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Four Christmases
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$31.1M
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$120.1M
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Hit Christmas themed movies generally play well into Thanksgiving weekend and December and A Christmas Carol will certainly capitalize on this trend. Carol is being shown on 3-D screens and on IMAX screens giving it a higher ticket price advantage that the other films listed above did not have and therefore should have a stronger debut. Look for A Christmas Carol to debut with about $34M worth of holiday cheer and for it to display great legs in the weeks ahead.
Reportedly based on the true story of unexplained, strange disappearances of residents in Nome, Alaska, alien abduction thriller, The Fourth Kind opens. The film is interspersed with supposed archival footage of Dr. Abigail Tyler’s sessions with abductees that prove what you are watching on screen is real. I think the only thing real about The Fourth Kind is its marketing campaign which will result in a decent opening. Coming on the heels of Paranormal Activity, another film that started its buzz with the idea that the film was based on true events, The Fourth Kind might be able to connect with some of that audience. Look for The Fourth Kind to abduct about $14M.
Cameron Diaz, James Marsden and Frank Langella star in The Box, a film brought to you by Richard Kelly, director of cult hit, Donnie Darko and the abhorrent Southland Tales. The film is about a couple in financial distress that is offered a strange deal from a mysterious stranger. He offers them a box. Push the button in the box and they will receive one million dollars; however someone they don’t know will die. It’s an interesting concept but Kelly is not a mainstream director and despite the starpower of Diaz, The Box will fail to generate too much excitement at the box office. Look for The Box to debut outside of the top 10 with about $7.5M.
The last new release of the frame is The Men Who Stare at Goats starring George Clooney, Ewan McGregor, Jeff Bridges and Kevin Spacey. Goats is based on the true story of a reporter in Iraq who meets a guy who claims to be a former member of U.S. Army’s First Earth Battalion, a unit that employs paranormal powers in their missions. Films about Iraq have been met with a cold reception but Goats should fare alright thanks to its all star cast and comedic tone. Look for Clooney and company to collect about $12M this weekend.
Among holdovers, last weekend’s champ, Michael Jackson’s This Is It should hold up fairly well in its second frame. Usually for a film like this with such a front loaded audience I’d expect a big drop in the 55-60% range, but the film has held up extremely well during the week, grossing over $2.5M on Monday and Tuesday. With that in mind, I believe the King of Pop will ease off 40% and moonwalk away with another $13.9M. With the frightful season of Halloween at an end, Paranormal Activity should start performing like a normal film. Look for the indie thriller to drop 50% to collect another $8.2M. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.
Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on
Twitter for box updates throughout the weekend.
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RANK
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TITLE
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BILL’S PREDICTION
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1
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A Christmas Carol
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$34M
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2
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The Fourth Kind
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$14M
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3
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Michael Jackson’s This Is It
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$13.9M -40%
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4
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The Men Who Stare at Goats
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$12M
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5
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Paranormal Activity
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$8.2M -50%
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6
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The Box
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$7.5M
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7
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Law Abiding Citizen
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$5.2M -30%
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8
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Couples Retreat
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$4.5M -30%
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9
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Where the Wild Things Are
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$3.6M -40%
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10
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Saw VI
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$2.4M -55%
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