Director Rolland Emmerich, the king of disaster movies unleashes 2012 this weekend starring John Cusack. The film is about a family struggling to survive the end of the world. Emmerich’s box office record is quite impressive, especially with disaster films. Take a look

 

The best comparison for 2012 would be The Day After Tomorrow. Both films are truly disaster movies about the end of the world and feature a good cast of familiar faces. Tomorrow had Jake Gyllenhaal, Dennis Quaid, Sela Ward and Emmy Rossum. 2012 stars John Cusack, Woody Harrelson (hot off of Zombieland), Thandie Newton and Danny Glover and various others. The reviews have been virtually identical with both films at about 45% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.   The critics all agree that the special effects in 2012 are fantastic but the story is lacking, which is exactly what they said about Tomorrow. 

That being said, I don’t think 2012 will open as big as Tomorrow for a few reasons. The Day After Tomorrow was released at the beginning of the summer which is the best time to release a blockbuster. 2012 is launching in November, which recently has become a good month at the box office after the success of the last James Bond films, Twilight and a couple of the Harry Potter flicks, but still it is not as strong a month as May. The Day After Tomorrow was just over two hours long whereas 2012 clocks in at about two hours and forty minutes, which will cause it to have fewer showings. Tomorrow opened in 3425 theatres and 2012 looks to open in just over 3000. I would expect 2012 to open with about $58M this weekend.

Pirate Radio, directed by Richard Curtis (Four Weddings and a Funeral) is based on the true story of a group of seafaring rock and roll deejays whose “pirate radio” captivated and inspired 1960’s Britain. The film is opening in 900 theatres and awareness of the film isn’t all that high. The film was originally titled The Boat That Rocked which certainly doesn’t help. The stars of the film are all great actors such as Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Bill Nighy but they don’t have any box office power behind them. The reviews have been solid which will help Pirate Radio crack the top ten. Look for the film to debut with about $3M. 

Last weekend, Precious opened on just 18 screens and grossed $1.8M for a stunning average of $104K per screen. As a result the film is expanding into 174 theatres this weekend and will march into the top ten. The film takes place in Harlem and is about an overweight, illiterate teen whose pregnant with her second child and is invited to enroll in an alternative school in hopes that her life can head in a new direction. The film has been receiving major momentum thanks to Oprah Winfrey and Tyler Perry who are executive producers of the film. Look for Precious to collect about $5.5M this weekend, enough to land at #5.

Among holdovers, A Christmas Carol opened lower than most industry expectations last weekend and will hope to experience a small decline in its second frame like most Christmas themed films. Take a look at how past films have performed in their second weekend.

 

I highly doubt that A Christmas Carol will have the same small decline of The Santa Clause films or Elf. Those films were original stories and even more important, they provided laughs for youngsters. Carol isn’t funny at all despite the presence of star Jim Carrey. The film is a bit too scary for younger kids and again everyone knows the story which may create a lack of interest. I believe Carol is in for a decline of 35% and will collect another $16.5M. To see the rest of my predictions for this box office weekend, check out the chart below.

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.