Exactly a year ago, the first Twilight film debuted with $69.6M, one of the biggest openings of 2008 and the fifth best opening of all time during the month of November. The first film went on to collect $191.4M and created many new fans of the property along the way. The opening for New Moon will be much bigger than the first film as the fanbase is rabid for this new installment. The marketing campaign has been huge and awareness of the film is sky high. The Twilight series is fueled mostly by teenage girls and young women, but the last film won over many young men as well who will be really interested in the latest chapter, which is more action packed than the original. New Moon is also opening in 600 more theatres than the first film which debuted in 3419 locations. That being said, New Moon should have no trouble surpassing the $69.6M debut of the last film. In fact, I think it will be the highest opening weekend ever during the month of November. Take a look at the top 10 as of last week.

 

The first film had no chance of reaching the heights of a Harry Potter film, but with an expanded base of fans from a year ago, I fully expect New Moon to surpass the boy wizard’s average opening. A debut of over $100M is almost a guarantee which will make New Moon only the second film of the year to reach this plateau behind this summer’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($108.9M). Can Twilight top the shape shifting robots? I believe it will. Look for New Moon to increase Twilights opening by about 60% to amass an incredible $110M over its debut frame.

Sandra Bullock stars in The Blind Side, the remarkable true story of All-American football player Michael Oher, who was a homeless teenager, taken in by a well to do family that helped him achieve his potential. This is Bullocks third film this year behind The Proposal and All About Steve. The Proposal was a runaway success collecting $163.9M, but Steve was a bomb, making only $33.7M. The Proposal was the exception as Bullock’s films over the last 7 years have averaged about $40M-$50M and The Blind Side should fall comfortably in that range. Football movies obviously tend to attract men, but Bullock tends to attract women to the theatres. This could either be a recipe for success or a complete disaster. Are men going to want to see a football film that stars a woman? I highly doubt it. Most men would probably rather skip this one and watch an actual game instead. Are women going to want to see a film about football even with Bullock as the star? Again, I doubt it. Especially when so many of them are going to be seduced by the vampires of Twilight this weekend. Look for The Blind Side to score about $13M this weekend.

The last new film of the frame is animated family film, Planet 51, starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. Although there isn’t much competition for the family audience other than Disney’s A Christmas Carol, Planet 51 isn’t going to blast off. The reviews have been awful and this is like the 50^th animated film released this year. A few years ago, a film that was animated like this was guaranteed some good box office, but that is not the case anymore, just ask Astro Boy. The film is also at a deficit because it is not being released as a 3-D film, which is all the rage right now. Look for Planet 51 to have a mild debut with $11.5M and to all but disappear next weekend when Fantastic Mr. Fox steals away its target audience.

After a terrific debut last weekend, 2012 will be in for a big fall this weekend. The film has been performing almost exactly like The Day After Tomorrow which fell 60% in its second frame. Interestingly, Tomorrow had the same type of competition in its second weekend that 2012 is facing. Tomorrow had to contend with the third Harry Potter film, which is a great comparison to New Moon. Look for the disaster flick to drop 60% and collect another $26.1M. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

 Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.