Old Dogs is by far the biggest new movie coming out this weekend. The film reteams John Travolta with his Wild Hogs director, Walt Becker and also stars Robin Williams. The film is about two guys; one a sad-sack divorcee and the other an eternal bachelor, who are unexpectedly charged with the care of 6 year old twins right as they are on the verge of the most lucrative business deal of their careers. The film is getting trashed by critics but that is not going to have any impact here at all. Wild Hogs was similarly destroyed by reviewers and debuted with $39.7M and went on to gross $168.2M. Couples Retreat was yet another comedy that was savaged by critics and that film’s total stands at $105M. The trailer has been getting a great response. You’re guaranteed to hear quite a few laughs while watching the trailer in a crowded theatre and this is a great indicator for the film’s success.   Aimed squarely at the family audience, Old Dogs should be able to capitalize on the holiday weekend crowd, despite competition from Fantastic Mr. Fox, Planet 51 and A Christmas Carol. The film opens on a Wednesday so its weekend gross won’t be quite as high as Wild Hogs but audiences have been starved for a comedy in recent weeks. The last funny flick to be released was Couples Retreat nearly two months ago. Look for Old Dogs to collect about $18M over the weekend and a total of $26M over 5 days.

The next new film for the weekend is Ninja Assassin starring Korean pop star Rain and directed by James McTeigue (V for Vendetta). The film is about a ninja that turns against his former clan after they brutally execute his friend. Mayhem and kung fu action ensue.   This film has also been getting trashed by critics but the target audience of boy action junkies isn’t going to pay attention to such things. Ninja doesn’t have any chance of bringing in an audience that isn’t into this type of film and therefore its box office potential will be limited. There aren’t really any true comparisons for this movie as kung fu flicks very rarely come out as a wide release. Look for Ninja Assassin to fight its way to sixth place for the weekend with about $13M and a 5 day total of $19M. 

After a successful limited run, Fantastic Mr. Fox expands into over 2000 theatres looking to capitalize on the holiday family traffic. The film has received almost universal praise and that should help parents who are looking for a quality movie to take the family to see. However Fox does have a few deficits moving into the holiday frame. First and foremost, Mr. Fox is directed by hipster auteur, Wes Anderson. This shouldn’t seem like a big problem, but in fact it very well could be. It was just a few weeks ago that some parents were burned by another edgy filmmaker adapting a timeless children’s book; Spike Jonze delivered a truly child unfriendly version of Where the Wild Things Are and so some adults may be more cautious before setting out on a trip to multiplexes to see Mr. Fox and his furry friends. The film is also done in stop motion animation and in today’s day and age when every animated film is done in bold Pixar style CGI, kids may not be that interested.  Fox also has to contend with competition from Old Dogs, Planet 51 and A Christmas Carol, which all have higher theatre counts. Look for Fantastic Mr. Fox to make about $8M this weekend. 

After setting the box office on fire last weekend, The Twilight Saga: New Moon will continue to dominate and easily take first place for the second week in a row. The film has been performing very much like the first in the series, albeit on a larger scale, which was also entering its second weekend on the Thanksgiving holiday. Take a look.

 

Twilight dropped 62% its second weekend and I think it is a safe bet that New Moon will drop a touch more than that because of its inflated opening weekend. Look for New Moon to drop about 67% to collect another $47.1M this weekend. 

I was blindsided by how well football drama, The Blind Side did last weekend, but that’s not happening again. The film has been getting terrific word of mouth and because of the holiday, I believe the film will perform even better this weekend. Look for The Blind Side to be up about 5% to collect another $35.8M. 

Planet 51 opened to a mediocre $12.3M last weekend, but should be in for a small decline this weekend. Look for the animated astronaut adventure to ease off 15% to collect another $10.4M.  A Christmas Carol is entering its fourth frame and holiday films tend to play very well on Thanksgiving weekend. Look for Scrooge to be up about 20% for the frame adding another $14.7M to its stocking. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

 Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.