Armored starring Columbus Short, Matt Dillon and Laurence Fishburne has the best chance of all the new releases to crack the top 5. The film is about security guards for an armored truck company who decide to heist a truck filled with money and when things don’t go according to plan, violence ensues. After weeks of the box office being dominated by women friendly flicks like The Blind Side and Twilight, Armored has a chance of drawing in young men who need a jolt of action. The only action competition comes from Ninja Assassin which is going to drop like a stone this weekend. Don’t get me wrong. Armored in no means is going to be a big hit, but it should be able to outperform the other new films this weekend. Traditionally the weekend after Thanksgiving is weak with studios generally releasing films that don’t have major money making potential. Look for Armored to steal about $7.5M this weekend. 

Brothers starring Jake Gyllenhaal, Tobey Maguire and Natalie Portman from acclaimed director Jim Sheridan has been sold to look like an intense thriller but in reality is more a domestic drama than anything else. The film is about a decorated marine who is thought to be dead but returns home after being held as a prisoner of war in Afghanistan to discover his brother and wife have fallen in love in his absence. The film has been receiving mixed reviews but the one thing that most critics agree on is that Tobey Maguire gives perhaps the best performance of his career so far. The trailer certainly highlights the actor’s manic performance, which again is why the film looks more like a thriller in the vein of Obsessed or Lakeview Terrace. Look for Brothers to collect about $9M this weekend. 

Robert DeNiro stars as a widowed father on a road trip to visit his children in Everybody’s Fine. The film has a great cast rounded out by Drew Barrymore, Kate Beckinsale and Sam Rockwell, but ultimately they don’t have all that much box office appeal. Sure each of these actors have major hits on their resumes, but their track record is spotty at best. The film has been getting mixed reviews but even the positive ones aren’t that good. No one seems to have loved the movie all that much. Look for Everybody’s Fine to have a quiet debut of about $4M. 

The last wide release is horror spoof Transylmania. There isn’t all that much to say about this movie other than that I’m sure it is awful and I’m sure it will bomb. Although a wide release, the movie is opening in just over 1000 theatres, or about half the amount of theatres this weekend’s other new releases are playing in.  Transylmania will be lucky to make about $1M this weekend and will certainly debut outside of the top 10.

Among holdovers, New Moon and The Blind Side will continue to dominate the charts for the third weekend in a row, only this time, they are going to swap positions. The Blind Side will be that rare film that grabs the top spot for the first time in its third weekend. After rising 18% during the holiday frame, the football drama should be in for a 48% drop to collect another $20.9M. New Moon dropped 70% from its huge opening weekend and should stabilize a bit this weekend. The vampire flick will still drop a hefty 62% to collect another $16.3M.

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

 Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.