The highly anticipated Avatar is writer/director James Cameron’s first film in 12 years. His last film, Titanic ($600.8M) is the biggest box office hit of all time, but it would be unwise and unfair to expect Avatar to do nearly as well.   It might make about half of what Titanic made. Avatar is being well received by critics and has also starting racking up nominations for various awards including a nod for Best Picture (Drama) from The Golden Globes. I would say it is a fair bet that it will be also nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars now that the category has 10 nominees instead of the usual 5. This will all lead to the film having strong legs at the box office, but the real question is what kind of box office heights can the film reach this weekend? 

There aren’t all that many movies that compare to Avatar as far as box office goes. December was never really a month that blockbuster films were released until recently, thanks to Lord of the Rings. Since that film, we’ve seen two more Rings movies, King Kong (all thanks to Peter Jackson) and I Am Legend dominate during December. Here’s a look at how all those films performed their first weekend at the box office. 

 

As far as those films go, Avatar compares to I Am Legend in the essence that they are both not based on popular source material. Legend was based on a graphic novel, but most moviegoers hadn’t read it or even heard of it before seeing the movie. The major difference between the two films is star power. Avatar doesn’t have a huge bankable actor like Will Smith; however it does have a bankable director in James Cameron. Comparisons to King Kong are there as well; both films are special effects bonanzas directed by gods of cinema. Both featured a largely star free cast and both have running times of nearly 3 hours. The problem with this comparison is that Kong only made $50M in its debut frame whereas Avatar will make much more. Had this not been like the 20^th version of King Kong, the mother of all gorilla movies would’ve debuted much stronger. Based solely on award season buzz, Avatar can certainly be compared to the third Rings film as well. Again both films have long running times, widely respected directors and a star free cast. 

Avatar has many factors going for it that those other films did not. James Cameron’s rabid fanbase has had to wait 12 years for his latest film and it has been 18 years since Cameron made a sci-fi film, his last being 1991’s Terminator 2. Avatar will also enjoy higher ticket prices than the other movies listed above thanks in part to inflation, but mostly due to IMAX and 3-D showings. The film also has zero competition this weekend with no other film in the top 10 poised to make more than $18M. The only other action type films in the marketplace are 2012 and New Moon and both are on their last legs at the box office. All in all, I believe Avatar will make about $82M this weekend.

From most anticipated film of the year to one of the least anticipated, this weekend returns Hugh Grant to the silver screen after a 2 and a half year absence with romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? co-starring Sarah Jessica Parker, hot after the Sex and the City movie ($58.8M opening $152.6M total). Morgans may have a chance this weekend as counter-programming to Avatar but more than likely will get lost in the holiday shuffle. Despite the success of Sex and the City, Parker’s box office record is spotty at best and so is Grant’s. Take a look at how some of their recent films have performed. 

 

The film has many deficits; the title is too long (Did You Hear About the Morgans? doesn’t quite roll off the tongue; it’s annoying just typing it), the reviews have been horrendous and typically (Avatar aside) the weekend before Christmas is fairly slow due to last minute shopping and holiday planning. Morgans also has major competition coming its way next weekend with the arrival of It’s Complicated the latest romantic comedy from director Nancy Meyers. The truth is that not many moviegoers are going to hear about the Morgans this weekend. Look for it to collect about $8M this weekend.

Among holdovers, last weekend’s champ, Disney’s The Princess and the Frog, should hold up well in its second outing due to great reviews and positive word of mouth. Look for a dip of about 38% to collect another $15.0M. This will bring the films total to about $50M after 10 days in wide release. With the holiday right around the corner, Disney should also see slim declines for its animated take on Charles Dickens classic A Christmas Carol. Look for the holiday treat to have a slim decline of about 25% to collect another $5.1M in its 7^th frame.

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.