Two years ago, Alvin and the Chipmunks dominated the holiday season, raking in $217.3M by the end of its run. The Squeakquel launching on Wednesday the 23^rd is poised to do the same thing. The playing field is wide open as there isn’t all that much competition for young ones. The Princess and the Frog is entering its third weekend in wide release but really hasn’t been performing as well as expected. The films total now stands at $47.6M and Alvin will gross more than that this weekend. The reviews have been terrible (big surprise) but that won’t affect the films performance at all. The Chipmunks will also have to face off with Avatar, but that film isn’t really for kids. I would expect Alvin and the Chipmunks to sing its way to about $48M over the weekend with a 5 day total of $75M. Beyond that expect Alvin to play terrifically well Monday through Thursday, making about $10M each day and for it to have a terrific hold on New Year’s weekend. 

Sherlock Holmes is the latest character to get rebooted and the film should be a decent hit. The latest version stars Robert Downey Jr. as the popular sleuth with Jude Law as his Watson and Rachel McAdams as his love interest. This isn’t the Holmes we’ve seen in countless other movies and TV shows. As directed by Guy Ritchie, this Holmes is both brilliant with his mind and his fists. There have been concerns that teenagers wouldn’t know who Sherlock Holmes is and therefore wouldn’t be interested in this reboot. I have two things to say about that; one it stars Iron Man so that shouldn’t be a problem and two, are you seriously going to tell me that fifteen year olds have never heard of Sherlock Holmes. I highly doubt that’s the case. Holmes does have some forces working against it. The reviews have been decidedly mixed with even the positive ones not all that glowing. Holmes is also going to have to compete with Avatar which is sure to hold up terrifically this weekend. Expect Sherlock Holmes to uncover about $55M this weekend. 

It’s Complicated, the latest romantic comedy from director Nancy Meyers, stars Meryl Streep as a happily divorced woman whose life gets complicated when she begins an affair with her ex-husband (Alec Baldwin). The film also stars Steve Martin and with a cast like that, it’s not complicated at all to think that women 35 and over are going to flock to see this. The men will also be game thanks to Baldwin and Martin. The film is receiving mixed reviews but it is also receiving some good buzz for the performance of the seasoned cast. Meryl Streep is the real box office draw here. She has been on a career box office high for the last couple of years. Here’s a look at how of some of her more recent hits have performed at the box office.

 

It’s Complicated does have major competition for its target audience. Both Oscar hopefuls, Up in the Air and Nine are going into wide release this weekend and Avatar is a viable choice for many adults this weekend as well. Sherlock Holmes will provide some interference as will The Blind Side still going strong in week six. Look It’s Complicated to make about $23M over the holiday frame. 

Up in the Air starring George Clooney has been performing very well over the last three weekends in limited release. It has already banked $8.2M and will be expanding from 175 theatres to 1895 this Wednesday the 23rd. Last weekend the film averaged $18.3K per screen, but with the expansion, that average should come down quite a bit. Air is one of the best reviewed films of the year and has been racking up awards nominations and is one of the front runners for a Best Picture nomination from the Oscars. Just like It’s Complicated, Up in the Air has major competition, but should manage to soar away with $12M over the weekend.

Musical Nine also expands to over 1500 theatres this weekend after collecting an impressive $257K from just two locations last weekend.   The film stars Daniel Day-Lewis as a director trying to juggle the many women in his life including his wife, his mistress, his muse, his mother and various others. The film features quite the cast of talented actresses such as Penelope Cruz, Nicole Kidman, Kate Hudson and Black Eyed Peas singer, Fergie. Directed by Rob Marshall, the man behind the film version of Chicago, Nine has been taking a bit of a beating from critics but at the same time it has been nominated for quite a few awards. Based on that, your guess is as good as mine as to whether the film is any good.  Nine of course has the same stiff competition that Up in the Air and It’s Complicated have, but Nine is in fewer theatres than the other films. Look for Nine to collect about $6M this weekend.

Can any of these films top Avatar? Despite a huge snow storm, the film pulled in an impressive $77M last weekend and has had major momentum coming into this week. It grossed $16.4M on Monday and should continue to dominate throughout the week. The reviews have been very solid and the word of mouth has been off the charts. I personally think it’s one of the best films of the decade and it deserves to win the Oscar for Best Picture. Despite competition from Sherlock Holmes, Avatar should only dip about 15% this weekend to collect another $65.5M, enough to remain on top of the charts. My guess is that Avatar will be at $275M by the end of New Year’s weekend. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.