James Cameron is still king of the world as Avatar was #1 for the second weekend in a row despite major competition from Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks. The film eased off an amazing 2% to collect another $75.6M. I knew Avatar would have a great hold during the holiday frame but this was way better than I had expected. I thought the film would drop 15% to collect another $65.5M. I’m more than happy to have been wrong as Avatar is one of the very best films of the decade and deserves every dollar it makes. The film’s total stands at $212.7M after 10 days and I expect it to be north of $300M by the end of New Year’s weekend. The way this film is performing, my guess is that it could become the second biggest hit of all time behind Cameron’s own Titanic.

Sherlock Holmes starring Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law exceeded industry expectations collecting $62.4M over the Christmas frame and coming in at second place. This was higher than my $55M prediction and way higher than most industry expectations of $45M or less. The film got off to a terrific start grossing $24.8M on Friday, setting a new record for the best Christmas Day opening ever. Holmes is now the second franchise starring Robert Downey Jr. (the other is Iron Man), completing one of the greatest comebacks in history. A few years ago, the actor seemed to have fizzled out, but with Iron Man, Tropic Thunder and now Holmes, he is now one of the most bankable stars in Hollywood. Reviews have been pretty good and audiences seem to be enjoying the latest take on the timeless character, so Sherlock Holmes should experience a small drop next weekend.

Opening on Wednesday, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel came in third place for the weekend with $48.9M and a 5 day total of $75.6M. This was right on with my prediction of a $48M weekend take and 5 day total of $75M. The popular critters had the marketplace all to themselves with no real competition other than The Princess and the Frog which has proven to be a disappointment at the box office. The reviews haven’t been too kind but ultimately they don’t mean a thing with a movie like this. I can tell you that my kids loved it. With kids on a break from school, The Chipmunks should play very well this week and collect about $10M a day and experience a tight hold over New Year’s weekend. 

It’s Complicated, the latest romantic comedy from writer/director Nancy Meyers, starring Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin opened to a very good $22.1M, very close to my $23M call. This is yet another box office success for Streep who has been on quite a roll over the last couple of years. Take a look. 

 

The film played to a mostly female audience over 30 and is receiving positive word of mouth from audiences. Heading into the New Year’s weekend, It’s Complicated should hold up well and experience just a small drop off.

Two films expanded from limited release into more theaters this weekend to mixed results. Up in the Air starring George Clooney collected $11.3M over the weekend right in line with my $12M prediction. Air expanded from 175 theatres to 1895 for a decent average of $6.0K per screen. Air has been one of the most loved films by critics this year and is a front runner at this year’s Oscars. Considering how competitive this weekend was, Air did just fine and should continue to play well over the next few weeks due to good word of mouth and award season buzz. 

After collecting $257K from only two theatres last weekend, Nine expanded into 1412 theatres over the Christmas frame to lackluster results. The Oscar hopeful starring Daniel Day-Lewis, Penelope Cruz, Nicole Kidman and a slew of others, collected the measly sum of $5.5M, much lower than my $9M projection.   Competition was steep for adult audiences and Nine clearly wasn’t on anyone’s must see list. With no new films opening this weekend, Nine might get lucky and experience a good hold over the New Year’s frame, but I doubt that is going to happen. As it’s box office chances fizzle, so does any chance of becoming a major winner at this year’s Oscars.

To see how the rest of the top 10 shaped up and how my other predictions for the weekend fared, check out the chart below.

Be sure to come back Thursday for my predictions for New Year’s weekend where not one new film will be released.

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