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Jan
14
Written by:
Bill Bonfanti
1/14/2010 1:40 PM
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 15-18
Two new releases The Book of Eli and The Spy Next Door open over the 4 day Martin Luther King Jr. weekend and The Lovely Bones expands nationwide after playing in limited release for a month. Can any of these films knock box office giant, Avatar out of the #1 spot? I highly doubt it. The film with the best chance of unseating Avatar is post-apocalyptic road movie, The Book of Eli starring Denzel Washington, although in my opinion it has no chance at all. Washington is a solid box office draw, but his films don’t make that much money. Typically his films open in the mid to low 20’s. Take a look at the top 10 openings of his career.
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RANK
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RELEASE DATE
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TITLE
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OPENING WEEKEND
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TOTAL
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1
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11/2/07
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American Gangster
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$43.6M
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$130.2M
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2
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3/24/06
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Inside Man
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$28.9M
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$88.6M
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3
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6/12/09
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The Taking of Pelham 123
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$23.4M
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$65.5M
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4
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4/23/04
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Man on Fire
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$22.8M
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$77.9M
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5
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10/15/01
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Training Day
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$22.6M
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$76.3M
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6
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9/29/00
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Remember the Titans
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$20.9M
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$115.7M
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7
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11/22/06
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Déjà vu
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$20.6M
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$64.0M
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8
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2/15/02
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John Q
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$20.3M
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$71.0M
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9
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7/30/04
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The Manchurian Candidate
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$20.0M
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$65.9M
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10
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5/12/95
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Crimson Tide
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$18.6M
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$91.4M
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The Book of Eli is a tougher sell than most of Denzel’s films because it is very genre specific. Although it is being sold as an action movie, it looks more like a futuristic western with its bleak landscapes and dust filled towns. The story of a lone man bringing justice to a corrupt town is about as western as a movie gets. The reviews have been pretty bad so far and that will keep away adult fans of the star. Look for The Book of Eli to collect $27M over 3 days with a holiday 4 day weekend total of $33M. The films contract is currently trading at $84 on the Cantor Exchange and I think anywhere above $80 it is a good sell. By the time the contract settles (after 4 weeks in theatres or as I call it the Popcorn Period), The Book of Eli will probably collect between $70M -$75M. Remember, the Exchange is open for mock trading only at this time. You don’t need to risk any real money yet, so get in there and practice. You can thank me later.
Jackie Chan stars in The Spy Next Door, a family comedy about a retired CIA agent who gets coerced into taking care of his girlfriend’s three kids while she is away. Things become more complicated for our beleaguered spy when his nemesis arrives and starts trouble. I have to be honest, the first time I saw this trailer I threw up in my mouth a little. This is as bad as movies get my friends. Jackie Chan can be fun in the right role, but in the wrong role, downright excruciating to watch. It doesn’t help that the film co-stars Billy Ray Cyrus and George Lopez. I have nothing against those two entertainers, but movie stars they are not. Despite this film being god awful, it will make a little money this weekend due to soft competition for the family audience over a holiday frame. The only competition is Alvin and the Chipmunks which is entering into its fourth weekend in theatres after catering to families for two solid weeks during the holidays. Look for The Spy Next Door to fight its way to $10M over 3 days and a total of $13M over the extended frame. I see the movie making about $30M by the end of the Popcorn Period. Buy it at $25 and lower, sell it $40 or higher.
After a month of middling results in limited platform release, Peter Jackson’s adaption of The Lovely Bones, the best-selling novel by Alice Sebold expands into 2400 theatres nationwide. Before its release this film was considered a major awards contender but critics are ripping it apart. Because of the poor reviews, not only have the films award season chances been shot to hell, the films box office chances are looking pretty slim as well. Look for The Lovely Bones to unearth about $14M over Friday to Sunday with a 4 day gross of $18M. The Lovely Bones will gross about $42M-$47M during the Popcorn Period so anywhere around $30 per contract, I would buy it. The movie contract is currently trading at $34.
What can I say about Avatar that hasn’t already been said? The film is amazing! It breaks box office records every weekend and this frame will not prove to be an exception. Audiences can’t get enough of it and continue to tell their friends and family to see it. Okay, on to the numbers. Over the 3 day span, Avatar will experience yet another slim decline, probably about 22% to collect another $39.2M. By Tuesday the film should be at a total of $496M making it the 3 rd biggest domestic blockbuster of all time and giving The Dark Knight ($533.3M) one more week to enjoy second place. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.
Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.
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RANK
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TITLE
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BILL’S PREDICTION
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1
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Avatar
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$39.2M -22% 3 day
$45.3M -10% 4 day
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2
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The Book of Eli
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$27M New 3 day
$33M 4 day
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3
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The Lovely Bones
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$14M New 3 day
$18M 4 day
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4
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Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
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$11.6M -30% 3 day
$13.6M -18% 4 day
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5
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The Spy Next Door
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$10M New 3 day
$13M 4 day
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6
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Sherlock Holmes
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$9.2M -45% 3 day
$10.8M -35% 4 day
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7
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It’s Complicated
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$7.2M -35% 3 day
$8.3M -25% 4 day
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8
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The Blind Side
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$5.3M -30% 3 day
$6.4M -15%
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9
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Up in the Air
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$4.9M -32% 3 day
$5.6M -22% 4 day
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10
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Leap Year
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$4.8M -48% 3 day
$5.7M -38% 4 day
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Updated Friday January 15th
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