The actor formerly known as”The Rock”, Dwayne Johnson has successfully been carving out a career as a family friendly star over the last couple of years. His latest effort The Tooth Fairy should perform in line with his other family films. Here’s a look at how those films performed. 

 

The Game Plan was his biggest family hit to date and I highly doubt The Tooth Fairy is going to reach the same heights. More than likely it will perform somewhere in the middle of Witch Mountain and Planet 51. I expect The Tooth Fairy to fly off with about $16M this weekend. The films movie contract at the Cantor Exchange is currently trading at $54 and I think it should be sold here, but not any lower. I believe The Tooth Fairy will make between $45M-$50M during the Popcorn Period*. 

God is angry and is sending angels to Earth to kick-start the apocalypse and our fate rests in the hands of Dennis Quaid, Paul Bettany and Tyrese Gibson in action horror flick Legion. The film looks like a terrible refuge from the 90’s and will only be of interest to action junkies who have seen Avatar seven times already. I can’t imagine any scenario where this film does well at the box office. I would expect Legion to fight its way to a $14M debut and disappear from theatres soon after. The movie contract is currently trading at $42 and I wouldn’t do anything at this price. I see the film making a total of $35M-$40M during the Popcorn Period. At $30 or lower I would buy it and I would sell it anywhere north of $45.

The final new release for the weekend is the first from CBS films, Extraordinary Measures, which is fitting because the film seems like a glorified TV movie. The films teams up Harrison Ford with Brendan Fraser and I have to be honest, this is not the type of film I would’ve liked to see them appear in together. I was hoping more for something like Indiana Jones and the Curse of the Mummy. Loosely based on a true story, Measures is a tearjerker of a movie about parents desperately trying to find a cure to a life threatening disease that both of their children suffer from.  Generally movies of this nature tend to fizzle at the box office and both leading men have had difficulty establishing themselves outside of the action genre. The reviews have been terrible which will certainly have an impact on the adult audience this film is after. Look for Extraordinary Measures to open with a less than extraordinary $8M.  Measures should collect about $28M-$32M during the Popcorn Period. The contract is currently trading at $27.

Among holdovers, The Book of Eli should be in for a substantial drop after last weekend’s very solid debut. Denzel Washington’s films generally drop about 47% during their second weekends. Take a look. 

 

I believe Eli will drop a bit more for two reasons. One, the reviews for Eli have been pretty bad and generally Washington’s films are well received by critics. I myself didn’t really dig it (Sorry for not posting my review yet) and I’m sure the word of mouth can’t be that great. Second, Eli is going to perform more like an action film, which typically drop 55% or more in their second frames. Look for The Book of Eli to drop 52% to collect another $15.9M. This will bring the films total to a respectable $60M after 10 days. I see the film making about $80M during the Popcorn Period.

What can I say about Avatar that hasn’t already been said? The film is amazing!  It breaks box office records every weekend and this frame will not prove to be an exception. Audiences can’t get enough of it and continue to tell their friends and family to see it. Okay, on to the numbers. Avatar will experience yet another slim decline, probably about 18% to collect another $35.1M. By Saturday night the film should replace The Dark Knight as the second biggest domestic blockbuster of all time. This is the last weekend that Avatar will easily hold on to the #1 spot. Next weekend it will go head to head with revenge thriller, Edge of Darkness starring Mel Gibson who has been absent from the big screen for 7 years.   We’ll find out next week who will emerge on top.

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during this 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during this 4 weeks, the contract will cash out a $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period