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Jan 25

Written by: Bill Bonfanti
1/25/2010 12:54 PM 

BOX OFFICE RESULTS FOR THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 22-24
To no one’s surprise, Avatar continued to be #1 for the sixth weekend in a row, fighting off a trio of newcomers with ease. The 3-D adventure flick was the first film since Titanic to rule the charts for a six week period. Titanic managed to stay at top for a record 15 frames but Avatar won’t be able to match that. Action horror film Legion opened well in second place, Dwayne Johnson’s latest family film The Tooth Fairy opened disappointingly in fourth while Extraordinary Measures starring Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser fizzled in seventh. Take a look.
Despite looking absolutely dreadful, Legion pulled in an audience of young men who had already visited Pandora multiple times and were looking for something new. The apocalyptic thriller pulled in $17.5M, higher than my $14M prediction. Legion catered to much of its target audience this weekend so a hefty decline of 60% or more is in the cards for next weekend. Legion should collect between $42M-$44M by the end of the Popcorn Period* so its movie contract should cash out at about $43 on the Cantor Exchange
The Tooth Fairy opened to a mild $14M, a notch lower than my $16M forecast. This is Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson’s fourth family film and this time the results weren’t as good as his previous efforts. Take a look.
RELEASE DATE
TITLE
OPENING WEEKEND
TOTAL
11/20/09
Planet 51
$12.3M
$40.2M
3/13/09
Race to Witch Mountain
$24.4M
$67.2M
9/28/07
The Game Plan
$22.9M
$90.6M
 
Fairy did best the opening weekend of Planet 51, but it is an unfair comparison because 51 is an animated film, featuring only the actor’s voice. Reviews for the film were downright awful but they probably didn’t have much impact here. More than likely it was the awful premise that kept families away. I mean really, does anyone really want to see “The Rock” in a pink tutu? By the end of the Popcorn Period The Tooth Fairy will probably find about $36M-$38M under its pillow.
The final new release for the weekend was the first film release for CBS films and it was not a good start. Extraordinary Measures fizzled at the box office, collecting a paltry $6M, right on target with my $8M prediction. The film was trashed by critics, something the film’s target audience of adults 30 and up actually cares about, which certainly didn’t help. Both stars Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser have had trouble in the past translating their respective box office talents to genres other than action adventure and Measures certainly didn’t help their cause. The subject matter of sick children also tends to keep audiences away. The film should finish the Popcorn Period with about $24M-$26M.
Once again Avatar conquered the charts dipping a slim 18% to collect another $34.9M exactly as I predicted. The films massive total now stands at $551.7M making it the second biggest domestic blockbuster of all time. Here’s a look at the top 10.
RANK
RELEASE YEAR
TITLE
TOTAL
1
1997
Titanic
$600.8M
2
2009
Avatar
$552.8M
3
2008
The Dark Knight
$533.3M
4
1977
Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope
$460.9M
5
2004
Shrek 2
$441.2M
6
1982
E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial
$435.1M
7
1999
Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace
$431.1M
8
2006
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest
$423.3M
9
2002
Spider-Man
$403.7M
10
2009
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
$402.1M
 
By the end of next weekend, Avatar should be within striking distance of Titanic’s epic $600.8M haul. Avatar also broke the record for the biggest sixth weekend gross formerly held by Titanic which collected $25.2M in its sixth voyage. The film’s worldwide total now stands at $1.841B, a mere $2M away from Titanic’s record of $1.843B. In fact, by the time you read this, Avatar will officially be the biggest worldwide hit of all time. 
Can Avatar be #1 for a seventh time? That’s the real question heading into this weekend as Mel Gibson returns to the silver screen for the first time in eight years with revenge thriller, Edge of Darkness. I suspect that the Na’vi will be able to fend off Mr. Gibson, but it sure is going to be interesting.
To see how the rest of the top 10 shaped up and how my other predictions for the weekend fared, check out the chart below.
Be sure to come back Thursday for my predictions for this weekend’s new releases Edge of Darkness and When in Rome. 
Follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the week.
RANK
TITLE
JANUARY 22-24
JANUARY 15-17
% CHANGE
# OF THEATRES/
AVERAGE
# OF WEEKS
TOTAL
BILL SAID
1
Avatar
$34.9M
$42.8M
-18%
3141
$11.1K per screen
6
$551.7M
$35.1M
-18%
2
Legion
$17.5M
New
New
2476
$7.1K per screen
1
$17.5M
$14.0M
3
The Book of Eli
$15.7M
$32.8M
-52%
3111
$5.1K per screen
2
$60.7M
$15.9M
-52%
4
The Tooth Fairy
$14.0M
New
New
3344
$4.2K per screen
1
$14.0M
$16.0M
5
The Lovely Bones
$8.4M
$17.0M
-51%
2571
$3.3K per screen
5
$31.2M
$9.0M
-47%
6
Sherlock Holmes
$6.6M
$9.9M
-33%
2670
$2.5K per screen
5
$191.1M
$5.7M
-42%
7
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
$6.4M
$11.6M
-45%
2973
$2.2K per screen
5
$204.1M
$7.2M
-38%
8
Extraordinary Measures
$6.0M
New
New
2545
$2.4K per screen
1
$6.0M
$8.0M
9
It’s Complicated
$5.8M
$8.1M
-28%
2301
$2.5K per screen
5
$98.3M
$5.8M
-28%
10
The Spy Next Door
$4.6M
$9.7M
-53%
2924
$1.6K per screen
2
$18.5M
$4.4M
-55%
 
*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out a $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period

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