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Jan
28
Written by:
Bill Bonfanti
1/28/2010 1:16 PM
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 29-31
This weekend marks the return of Mel Gibson to the big screen after a seven year absence with Edge of Darkness. The only other film opening in wide release is romantic comedy When in Rome starring Kristen Bell. The real question is whether Avatar can fend off Mr. Gibson and remain the #1 film for the seventh weekend in a row. I think it’s going to be a tight race. Take a look. In Edge of Darkness, Gibson stars as a Boston cop looking to avenge the death of his daughter. The actor has been absent as a leading man for seven years and the question is whether he still has pull at the box office. Personally I’m excited for his return and I think there are many others out there who feel the same way. Given, there have been a few controversies surrounding Gibson over the last couple of years but I think audiences are ready to forgive and forget; especially if the movie is good. The reviews have been generally positive which will strike a chord with the adult audience this film is after.
Last year on this weekend, Liam Neeson’s revenge thriller, Taken opened with a strong $24.7M and Darkness should attract the same audience. Darkness does have a few advantages over Taken. Mel Gibson is a bigger box office draw than Liam Neeson. Taken also opened on Super Bowl weekend and lost a big portion of its audience because of it. Darkness doesn’t have to worry about the big game until next weekend. Look for Edge of Darkness to collect about $24M this weekend. The movie contract for the film at the Cantor Exchange is currently trading at $57 and I think it is a strong buy here. I believe Edge of Darkness will collect between $70M-$75M during the Popcorn Period*. Romantic comedy, When in Rome starring Kristen Bell and Josh Duhamel is about a woman who takes a trip to Italy in search of love. Bell is testing her leading lady status after finding success with supporting roles in Forgetting Sarah Marshall and Couples Retreat. Duhamel is more famous for being married to Fergie than anything else and is hoping to establish himself as a bankable leading man. Rome probably won’t help either of their careers, but it also won’t hurt them either. Rome does have an edge this weekend as there are no other films out that are catering to young women. A good comparison for this film would be Confessions of a Shopaholic which opened with $15.1M on Valentine’s Day weekend last year. Shopaholic opened in 2500 theatres, slightly more than Rome’s 2200. Shopaholic was also boosted by the romantic holiday but also had to contend with competition from He’s Just Not That in to You. Either way, Rome will definitely appeal to the same audience. Look for When in Rome to debut with about $12M. The films movie contract is currently trading at $32 and I think it should be bought here. I expect Rome to gross between $37M-$42M during the Popcorn Period.
What about Avatar? Will it be #1 yet again? The 3-D sci-fi epic should slip another 20% to collect another $28M, just edging out Darkness for the top spot. This will bring Avatar to a total of about $592M putting it within striking distance of Titanic’s record $600.8M haul.
To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.
Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.
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RANK
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TITLE
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BILL’S PREDICTION
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1
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Avatar
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$28M -20%
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2
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Edge Of Darkness
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$24M New
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3
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When in Rome
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$12M New
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4
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The Tooth Fairy
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$9.1M -35%
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5
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The Book of Eli
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$8.2M -48%
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6
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Legion
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$6.7M -62%
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7
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The Lovely Bones
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$4.4M -48%
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8
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It’s Complicated
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$4.2M -28%
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9
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Sherlock Holmes
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$4M -40%
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10
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Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
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$3.7M -42%
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*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period
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