Dear John starring Channing Tatum and Amanda Seyfried is about a soldier who falls in love with a spirited college girl while home on break. The film follows their relationship over several years as they are continuously separated each time he is deployed. The film should be able to bring in the usual Nicholas Sparks fanbase. Here’s a look at how other films based on his novels fared at the box office.

 

Dear John hasn’t been treated too kindly by critics and this may impact its potential a bit, however, it should open slightly better than most of Sparks other films for two reasons. First, the film will serve as perfect counter-programming for women looking to escape their husbands and boyfriends during the Super Bowl. Second, with Valentine’s Day right around the corner, romance is in the air and this should help boost the film’s box office on Friday and Saturday night. Overall, I expect Dear John to debut to about $22M over the weekend and to collect about $55M-$60M over the Popcorn Period*. The films movie contract is currently trading at $50 on the Cantor Exchange and I would likely do nothing at this price. At $60 and higher I would sell it and I would buy it anywhere south of $48. 

Action adventure From Paris With Love starring John Travolta and Jonathan Rhys Meyers is about a low-ranking intelligence operator working in the office of the U.S. ambassador in France who takes on more than he bargained for when he partners with a wisecracking, fast-shooting, high ranking U.S. agent whose been sent to Paris to thwart a terrorist attack. The film hasn’t been receiving any love from critics and its target audience of men 25 and up will be busy with football this Sunday. An interesting side note; director Pierre Morel’s last film Taken opened last year on Super Bowl weekend. This film is more than likely a bomb and will open with about $10M. Look for From Paris With Love to collect about $23M-$28M during the Popcorn Period. The films movie contract is currently trading at $38 and I would sell it at this price. At $20 or lower it should be bought and it should be sold anywhere north of $30.

As of Tuesday, Avatar is officially the biggest domestic blockbuster of all time, besting Titanic’s $600.8M total from 1997. As of Tuesday, the films total stands at $601.1M. Avatar should dip more this weekend than those prior due to competition from the Super Bowl but nonetheless, it will be a small decline. The film may also benefit from its nine Academy Award nods including one for Best Picture. Look for the blue skinned aliens to dip about 23% to collect another $24.1M. By the end of the weekend the #1 film of all time should be at about $630M and should end its run with a little over $700M. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period