BOX OFFICE RESULTS FOR THE WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY 5-7
The latest film based on a Nicholas Sparks novel, Dear John will go down in history as the film that knocked Avatar out of the top spot. Dear John also came close to the largest debut in history for a Super Bowl weekend nearly edging out the gross of the Hannah Montana 3-D concert from 2 years ago. This weekends only other new release, the John Travolta vehicle, From Paris With Love, bombed in third place.
Dear John collected $30.5M easily besting
Avatar’s eighth weekend gross of $23.6M.
John performed way better than most industry expectations including my prediction of $22M. The film was powered to a stunning debut by young women who have largely been ignored at the box office over the last few weeks.
Dear John will face major competition from
Valentine’s Day next weekend and the reviews have been pretty bad, so the film may not have the best legs moving forward. Look for
Dear John to collect about $80M during the Popcorn Period*. The films movie contract is currently trading at $74 on the
Cantor Exchange and should be bought here. It should be sold anywhere north of $85.
From Paris With Love starring John Travolta and Jonathan Rhys Meyers bombed in third place collecting a measly $8.1M, right on with my $8M prediction. Director Pierre Morel fared much better last year when his film Taken debuted to $24.7M over Super Bowl weekend. Paris will be lucky to collect $20M during the Popcorn Period. The films movie contract is currently trading at $25 on the Cantor Exchange which is still a good sell price.
Most films in the top 10 got sacked on Sunday due to the Super Bowl with the majority of them falling 60% or more from their Saturday grosses. The only films to fare better were The Tooth Fairy and the mighty Avatar which fell 57% and 55% respectively.
To see how the rest of the top 10 shaped up and how my other predictions for the weekend fared, check out the chart below.
Be sure to come back Thursday for my predictions for this weekend’s new releases Valentine’s Day, The Wolfman and Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief.
Follow me on
Twitter for box office updates throughout the week.
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
FEBRUARY 5-7
|
JANUARY 29-31
|
% CHANGE
|
# OF THEATRES/
AVERAGE
|
# OF WEEKS
|
TOTAL
|
BILL SAID
|
|
1
|
Dear John
|
$30.5M
|
New
|
New
|
2969
$10.3K per screen
|
1
|
$32.4M
|
$22.0M
|
|
2
|
Avatar
|
$22.9M
|
$31.3M
|
-27%
|
3000
$7.6K per screen
|
8
|
$629.3M
|
$24.1M
-23%
|
|
3
|
From Paris With Love
|
$8.1M
|
New
|
New
|
2722
$2.9K per screen
|
1
|
$8.1M
|
$8.0M
|
|
4
|
Edge of Darkness
|
$6.9M
|
$17.2M
|
-60%
|
3066
$2.2K per screen
|
2
|
$28.9M
|
$7.7M
-55%
|
|
5
|
The Tooth Fairy
|
$6.6M
|
$9.9M
|
-34%
|
3218
$2.1K per screen
|
3
|
$34.5M
|
$7.0M
-30%
|
|
6
|
When in Rome
|
$5.5M
|
$12.4M
|
-55%
|
2456
$2.2K per screen
|
2
|
$20.9M
|
$6.2M
-50%
|
|
7
|
The Book of Eli
|
$4.7M
|
$8.9M
|
-47%
|
2820
$1.7K per screen
|
4
|
$82.0M
|
$4.5M
-50%
|
|
8
|
Crazy Heart
|
$3.6M
|
$2.3M
|
+55%
|
819
$4.4K per screen
|
8
|
$11.1M
|
$4.0M
+74%
|
|
9
|
Legion
|
$3.5M
|
$7.2M
|
-52%
|
2339
$1.5K per screen
|
3
|
$34.7M
|
$2.9M
-60%
|
|
10
|
Sherlock Holmes
|
$2.5M
|
$4.5M
|
-44%
|
1805
$1.4K per screen
|
7
|
$201.5M
|
$2.7M
-40%
|
*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.