With a cast of about a bazillion actors including Julia Roberts, Anne Hathaway, Jamie Foxx and Jessica Alba, Valentine’s Day leads the pack of new films and will certainly capitalize from the romantic holiday falling on a Sunday during the extended President’s Day weekend. The reviews have been horrible but they won’t be much of a factor with couples looking for something to see this weekend. Moving forward the reviews may take their toll but right now it is clear sailing for the film. Last year a similar romantic comedy with a huge ensemble cast, He’s Just Not That Into You, cashed in debuting with $27.8M and collecting another $19.5M over the Valentine’s Day holiday weekend. 

Valentine’s Day does have some competition from last weekend’s champ Dear John which should slip about 35% in its sophomore frame.   Look for Valentine’s Day to collect about $45M over 3 days with a 4 day total of $55M. The films movie contract (VSDAY) is currently trading at $102 on the Cantor Exchange and is a good sell here. Look for the film to collect between $92M-$97M during the Popcorn Period*. 

Adapted from the best-selling book series by Rick Riordan, Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief will attempt to pull in young boys who have largely been ignored at multiplexes as of late. The film should interest families as well who have had nothing new to see except The Tooth Fairy which is entering its fourth weekend in theatres. There have been many other films based on popular book series that have attempted to follow the success of the Harry Potter films but none have come close.   I think Percy Jackson has a good chance of turning into a solid franchise for one major reason… director Chris Columbus. Columbus directed the first two Potter films (along with many other hits) and has the skill to steer Jackson into hit territory. The reviews have been mostly positive and that should help it in the weeks ahead as positive word of mouth begins to spread. 

The best comparisons for Percy Jackson’s chances at the box office are 2007’s Bridge to Terabithia ($22.6M) and 2008’s The Spiderwick Chronicles ($19M) which both opened in February as well. I think Jackson will perform better than those films. Look for Percy Jackson to conjure about $30M over the 3 day span with a 4 day total of about $40M. The films movie contract (PJALT) is currently trading at $76 on the Cantor Exchange and I would buy it here. The film should collect between $85M-$90M during the Popcorn Period. 

After many release date changes, The Wolfman, starring Benicio Del Toro, Anthony Hopkins and Emily Blunt, finally howls into theatres. The reviews have been weak so far, but that’s not going to stop horror fans from checking it out this weekend. However, the film does have some other factors that aren’t going to help its box office chances. First the R-rating is going to keep teenage boys from seeing the film. Second, Benicio Del Toro isn’t exactly a big box office draw. In fact he is more like box office poison. Seriously… name one box office hit that Del Toro has starred in. I dare you. Look for The Wolfman to run away with $27M over 3 days with a 4 day tally of $34M. The films contract (WOLFM) is currently trading at $68.50 and I’m a bit neutral here. The film should bring in $62M-$67M over the Popcorn Period.

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.