Terrible reviews from critics (I didn’t like it either) didn’t stop audiences from flocking to the star studded spectacle of Valentine’s Day. The film opened with a very impressive $56.4M, way higher than my $45M prediction. With Valentine’s Day falling on a Sunday during a 3 day holiday weekend, this has to go down as the most well timed release in box office history. The debut now stands as the 3^rd largest opening weekend during the month of February. Take a look. 

 

With the romantic holiday done with, Valentine’s Day should experience a sizable drop next weekend. Look for the film to plummet at least 55% and for it to not have any real staying power in the weeks ahead. The films movie contract (VSDAY) is currently trading at $135 on the Cantor Exchange. Look for Valentine’s Day to collect between $125M-$130M during the Popcorn Period*. 

Catering to horror fans and men who were dateless on Valentine’s Day, The Wolfman scored a strong second place debut with $31.8M. This was a touch better than my $27M projection. The film was trashed by critics and its target audience has already come out to see it, so moving forward the film is in for a tough time. The film will have major competition next weekend from Martin Scorsese’s supernatural thriller, Shutter Island, which is also going to hurt the film. Look for a sizable drop of 60% or more. The films movie contact (WOLFM) is currently trading at $72 on the Cantor Exchange. The Wolman should howl its way to $68M-$73M during the Popcorn Period.

Coming in third for the weekend, Percy Jackson &the Olympians: The Lightning Thief also experienced a solid debut collecting $31.4M right in line with my $30M call. Many films have attempted to mine the success of the Harry Potter films with little success but Percy Jackson seems like it has a chance to become a hit franchise. The reviews have been pretty good and with no competition hitting theatres until March 5th when Alice in Wonderland comes out, Jackson should play well over the next few weeks. Look for a relatively small decline of about 35% next weekend. The Films movie contract (PJALT) is currently trading at $81 on the Cantor Exchange.   Percy Jackson should collect between $95M-$100M during the Popcorn Period.

To see how the rest of the top 10 shaped up and how my other predictions for the weekend fared, check out the chart below.

Be sure to come back Thursday for my predictions for this weekend’s only new release Shutter Island.

Follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the week.

 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.