This is the fourth pairing for Martin Scorsese and current muse Leonardo DiCaprio and it should open very well. The last efforts from Marty and Leo rank among the biggest box office hits of the legendary directors illustrious career. Take a look at his 10 biggest box office hits.

 

As you can see, even when adjusted for inflation, Scorsese and DiCaprio’s three efforts together are still among the biggest hits of his career. Although the list above is to show the potential for Shutter Island at the box office it is truly worthy of a look solely to appreciate Scorsese’s amazing body of work. He is arguably one of the greatest filmmakers of all time and in fact the list above excludes other great films such as The King of Comedy, Mean Streets and Bringing Out the Dead. 

Shutter Island is a bit of a departure for both the director and star in that it is a supernatural thriller, which should help bring in males under 25. The reviews have been solid (big surprise) and this will convince adults 30 and over to give the film a chance. Island is the only new release this weekend so awareness is sky high which will obviously help its box office chances. Shutter Island will also have no real competition for its target audience other than The Wolfman which is sure to plummet in its second frame. 

All in all, Shutter Island should enjoy the biggest opening of Scorsese’s (and DiCaprio’s) career with about $38M. The films movie contract is currently trading at $102 on the Cantor Exchange (What is the Cantor Exchange? ) and I’m quite neutral at this price. I believe the film will collect between $100M - $105M during the Popcorn Period*. 

Last weekend saw a trio of very different films each open north of $30M and each will hold up very differently heading into their sophomore frames. Perhaps the best timed release in the history of cinema, Valentine’s Day cashed in on the romantic appeal of its namesake holiday to the tune of $56.4M. This weekend with the holiday all but a distant memory, Valentine’s Day should be in for a big fall. Look for the star studded romantic comedy to freefall about 65% to collect another $19.7M. The film should collect between $120M-$125M during the Popcorn Period.

Percy Jackson & the Olympians opened with a strong $31.4M and is on its way to becoming a hit franchise. Reviews have been solid as has the word of mouth which will ensure another good weekend for the teenage demigod. Look for Percy Jackson to slip about 38% to collect another $19.4M. The film should finish the Popcorn Period with about $95M. 

Despite terrible reviews, The Wolfman opened to a very strong $31.8M but Shutter Island is going to fire a silver bullet into it this weekend. Horror films tend to have substantial drops in their second frames and The Wolfman will be no different. Look for it to tumble about 65% to collect another $11M. The Wolfman should collect about $70M during the Popcorn Period. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.