Cop Out is a buddy cop movie directed by Kevin Smith that stars Bruce Willis and Tracey Morgan. The film is notable for being the first time Smith has directed a film that wasn’t written by him. Generally Smith’s films top out at around $30M and hopes are that his first big studio effort will fare better. The buddy cop formula is one that can be very successful if done right like the Lethal Weapon films, 48 Hrs. or the Rush Hour films. Unfortunately, I don’t think Cop Out is going to achieve that success. The reviews have been dreadful so far (not that this will matter to the audience of young men the film is targeting) and this will be a detriment moving beyond opening weekend. 

Tracy Morgan has found success playing second banana to Tina Fey on NBC’s 30 Rock but hasn’t established a real track record at the box office as of yet. Kevin Smith has yet to have a huge hit at the box office so the films box office weight falls on the shoulders of Bruce Willis. Willis has had a rough decade at the box office with a few exceptions such as the fourth Die Hard or Over the Hedge, but all in all it has been a far cry from the box office wattage he had in the 90’s. Take a look at how Willis’ last few films have done at the box office.

 

The R-rating the film carries is also going to work against it. Look for Cop Out to arrest about $16.5M this weekend and for it to disappear from theatres quickly after. The films movie contract (2COPS) is currently trading at $59 on the Cantor Exchange and I think this is too high. I expect Cop Out to collect between $33M-$38M during the Popcorn Period*. 

The Crazies, a remake of George A. Romero’s 1973 horror flick of the same name, is about a town that gets infected with some sort of virus that turns the inhabitants into axe wielding zombie psychos. The film stars Timothy Olymphant and Radha Mitchell and both stars have no real pull at the box office. The film also has some competition in the market with Shutter Island and The Wolfman currently in theatres. The film has been receiving good reviews but will have trouble pulling in an audience outside of horror fans. Although not exactly a zombie movie, The Crazies certainly plays like one. Here’s a look at how some recent zombie films performed at the box office.  

 

Horror films tend to collect between $30M -$40M and The Crazies should fall within that range. Look for The Crazies to slash its way to about $14M this weekend. The films movie contract (CRAZI) is currently trading at $45 at the Cantor Exchange and I believe it is overvalued here. Look for The Crazies to collect between $28M-$33M during the Popcorn Period. 

Shutter Island represented the biggest opening of director Martin Scorsese’s career as well as star Leonardo DiCaprio’s and the film should hold up pretty well in its sophomore frame. Look for the film to slip about 47% to collect another $21.8M to remain on top of the box office chart for a second week. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.