It’s no question that Alice in Wonderland will be the #1 movie this weekend, but how high can it soar?  Will it be the biggest opening weekend ever for the month of March?  Here’s a look at the 5 biggest opening weekends during March.

Alice in Wonderland has many positive things going for it.  The reviews have been solid which will help convince parents to take their kids to see it.  Audiences will also want to check out the latest offbeat performance from Johnny Depp who is playing the Mad Hatter.  Alice is also entering a marketplace that is weak on choices for families.  The only competition is Percy Jackson which is entering its 4^th weekend and will not be much of a factor here.  These are all very positive things when it comes to forecasting Wonderlands box office potential, but the biggest single thing that is truly going to send Alice to box office wonderland is the higher ticket prices charged for 3-D screenings and of course IMAX screenings.  3-D (especially IMAX 3-D) is very hot now after the success of Avatar which was a completely new movie going experience.  Later on in the month, Alice’s 3-D screen count will be diminished by the release of 3-D films How to Train Your Dragon and Clash of the Titans which could actually work in the films favor.  It makes the 3-D version of Wonderland into an event or limited engagement which could translate into a ton of box office in its first couple of weeks. 

This is the seventh collaboration between director Tim Burton and Johnny Depp and audiences are  very aware of their body of work together.  This is the third time that the duo have worked on a classic childrens story together and the results have been very good up until this point.  Sleepy Hollow opened with $30.1M and went on to collect a total of $101M.  Charlie and the Chocalate Factory opened with $56.2M and took in $220.5M (including IMAX) total.  Alice should easily soar to these heights and higher.  Look for Wonderland to collect about $98M this weekend to become the biggest opening weekend for any film released during the month of March.   The films movie contract (ALCNW)  is currently trading at $227 on the Cantor Exchange and I believe it is slightly overvalued here.  I expect the film to pull in between $225M-$230M during the Popcorn Period*. 

The only other film opening in wide release this weekend is Brooklyn’s Finest from director Antoine Fuqua.  The films stars veteran actors Richard Gere, Don Cheadle, Ethan Hawke and Wesley Snipes and may serve as counter programming for adults looking for something outside of Wonderland.  Shutter Island will provide some direct competition entering its third weekend which will reduce Brooklyn’s box office chances.  Look for Brooklyn’s Finest to arrest about $12M this weekend.  The films movie contract (BRKLN) is currently trading at $32 on the Cantor exchange which is right in line with its potential box office take.  I would expect Brooklyn to take in about $35M during the Popcorn Period.

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres.  It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office.  If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50.  I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.